Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yellow Submarine (65%) · Yellow Submarine at 97¢ · $64K held · ends Nov 12

PlayTime4¢Yellow Submarine96¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yellow Submarine

Consensus Traders

Yellow Submarine 65%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$64.4K

Combined PnL

$-6.6K

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 96.5¢

+71% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYellow Submarine at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yellow Submarine

11 of 17 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime4%

Yellow Submarine97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yellow Submarine11 traders

Total Value$56.0K

Total Shares58,405

Combined PnL+$21.6K

PlayTime6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares62,421

Combined PnL$-28.2K

Yellow Submarine — 65%PlayTime — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE GeorgeRe	Yellow Submarineavg 53.7¢	$14.9K	$26.7K	+$11.8K	52% 701-636 (1337)
SI Sisyphus-	Yellow Submarineavg 57.1¢	$14.5K	$24.4K	+$9.9K	57% 523-401 (924)
UN UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 68.2¢	$4.8K	$2.9K	$-1.1K	29% 32-80 (112)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 68.2¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$148.4
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 58.2¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	-$995.11
MA madar78	Yellow Submarineavg 59.7¢	$1.7K	$2.7K	+$1.0K	38% 26-43 (69)
QW qwerqr1251251	Yellow Submarineavg 88.4¢	$2.9K	$1.7K	$-1.2K	20% 37-150 (187)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	PlayTimeavg 45.4¢	$16.3K	$1.4K	$-14.9K	47% 443-506 (949)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	PlayTimeavg 40.8¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$428.62	56% 3865-3028 (6893)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 55.8¢	$939.92	$956	+$16.08	12% 28-203 (231)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 55.8¢	$527.93	$595.74	+$67.81
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 42.3¢	$411.99	$360.25	-$51.74
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 45.5¢	$964.48	$912.5	-$51.98	53% 1833-1635 (3468)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 45.5¢	$719.64	$585.48	-$134.16
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 47.2¢	$244.84	$327.02	+$82.18
GX gxxyyCTR	PlayTimeavg 66.2¢	$8.2K	$494.34	$-7.7K	69% 489-220 (709)
PO PourpelNourpel	Yellow Submarineavg 58¢	$307.71	$334.23	+$26.53	52% 41-38 (79)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	PlayTimeavg 48.5¢	$2.3K	$191.36	$-2.1K	21% 15-57 (72)
GO GooGooGaga1CTR	PlayTimeavg 40.8¢	$1.5K	$151.85	$-1.4K	47% 17-19 (36)
WH whosayCTR	PlayTimeavg 57.9¢	$1.7K	$120	$-1.6K	70% 19-8 (27)
LR lryyy<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 48¢	$60.9	$82.3	+$21.4	45% 240-290 (530)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 53.5¢	$26.75	$31.5	+$4.75	52% 472-438 (910)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 57¢	$10	$16.84	+$6.84	31% 221-482 (703)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 54¢	$5	$5.83	+$0.83	41% 3151-4506 (7657)
SE sentrio<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 54¢	$4.21	$4.91	+$0.7	38% 358-588 (946)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 55¢	$2.75	$3.15	+$0.4	33% 307-627 (934)

GeorgeRe

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$14,920.72

Value

$26.7K

PnL

+$11.8K

Record

52%

701-636 (1337)

Sisyphus-

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$14,503.92

Value

$24.4K

PnL

+$9.9K

Record

57%

523-401 (924)

UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$4,760.69

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

29%

32-80 (112)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$1,953.2368.2¢-$148.4

PlayTime$1,667.9258.2¢-$995.11

madar78

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,699.35

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

38%

26-43 (69)

qwerqr1251251

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,868.43

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

20%

37-150 (187)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$16,342.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-14.9K

Record

47%

443-506 (949)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$1,699.35

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$428.62

Record

56%

3865-3028 (6893)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$939.92

Value

$956

PnL

+$16.08

Record

12%

28-203 (231)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$527.9355.8¢+$67.81

PlayTime$411.9942.3¢-$51.74

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$964.48

Value

$912.5

PnL

-$51.98

Record

53%

1833-1635 (3468)

Both legs:

PlayTime$719.6445.5¢-$134.16

Yellow Submarine$244.8447.2¢+$82.18

gxxyyCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$8,178.35

Value

$494.34

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

69%

489-220 (709)

PourpelNourpel

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$307.71

Value

$334.23

PnL

+$26.53

Record

52%

41-38 (79)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$2,322.44

Value

$191.36

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

21%

15-57 (72)

GooGooGaga1CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$1,546.99

Value

$151.85

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

47%

17-19 (36)

whosayCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$1,737.07

Value

$120

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

70%

19-8 (27)

lryyy<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$60.9

Value

$82.3

PnL

+$21.4

Record

45%

240-290 (530)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$26.75

Value

$31.5

PnL

+$4.75

Record

52%

472-438 (910)

pauleta23<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$10

Value

$16.84

PnL

+$6.84

Record

31%

221-482 (703)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

Value

$5.83

PnL

+$0.83

Record

41%

3151-4506 (7657)

sentrio<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$4.21

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0.7

Record

38%

358-588 (946)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2.75

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.4

Record

33%

307-627 (934)

Research grade

NeutralYellow Submarine at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yellow Submarine

11 of 17 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yellow Submarine wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.