Dota 2: PlayTime vs Team Synapse - Game 1 Winner

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold PlayTime (50%) · PlayTime at 97¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 11

PlayTime97¢Team Synapse3¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PlayTime

Consensus Traders

PlayTime 50%

Total Value

$28.6K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

78.5¢ → 97¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime97%

Team Synapse3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PlayTime4 traders

Total Value$27.9K

Total Shares28,719

Combined PnL+$5.3K

Team Synapse4 traders

Total Value$741.24

Total Shares20,197

Combined PnL$-3.6K

PlayTime — 50%Team Synapse — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on PlayTime. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Synapse 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000PlayTime 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	PlayTimeavg 78.1¢	$20.8K	$25.8K	+$5.0K	57% 514-393 (907)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	PlayTimeavg 85.7¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$172.4	46% 426-495 (921)
PO PourpelNourpel	PlayTimeavg 76¢	$304.69	$395.1	+$90.41	51% 30-29 (59)
Medo3DCTR	Team Synapseavg 20.1¢	$2.4K	$355.23	$-2.1K	6% 14-216 (230)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	PlayTimeavg 80.7¢	$255.42	$218.86	-$36.57	56% 3836-3007 (6843)
CA calculate10CTR	Team Synapseavg 21.9¢	$829.69	$200.25	-$375.01	22% 26-91 (117)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Team Synapseavg 22¢	$1.4K	$183.65	$-1.2K	48% 491-535 (1026)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 29¢	$4.83	$2.12	-$2.72	41% 3115-4481 (7596)

Sisyphus-

PlayTime

Invested

$20,758.66

Value

$25.8K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

57%

514-393 (907)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

PlayTime

Invested

$1,300

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$172.4

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

PourpelNourpel

PlayTime

Invested

$304.69

Value

$395.1

PnL

+$90.41

Record

51%

30-29 (59)

Medo3DCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$2,415.73

Value

$355.23

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

14-216 (230)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

PlayTime

Invested

$255.42

Value

$218.86

PnL

-$36.57

Record

56%

3836-3007 (6843)

calculate10CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$829.69

Value

$200.25

PnL

-$375.01

Record

22%

26-91 (117)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,368.6

Value

$183.65

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

48%

491-535 (1026)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$4.83

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$2.72

Record

41%

3115-4481 (7596)

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on PlayTime. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Synapse 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000PlayTime 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PlayTime wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.