Dota 2: PlayTime vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold PlayTime (74%) · PlayTime at 100¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 15

PlayTime>99¢Power Rangers<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PlayTime

Consensus Traders

PlayTime 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.5K

Combined PnL

$-4.0K

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 100¢

+29% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

14 of 19 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime100%

Power Rangers0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PlayTime14 traders

Total Value$23.3K

Total Shares25,040

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Power Rangers5 traders

Total Value$52.49

Total Shares20,937

Combined PnL$-7.2K

PlayTime — 74%Power Rangers — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	PlayTimeavg 99.9¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	+$3.45	98% 349-6 (355)
GX gxxyy	PlayTimeavg 88.7¢	$4.7K	$5.3K	+$598.54	69% 509-227 (736)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	PlayTimeavg 55¢	$1.7K	$3.1K	+$1.4K	17% 17-82 (99)
RA RandomVibecoder	PlayTimeavg 55.8¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	+$1.3K	48% 537-587 (1124)
Skritopoolniy	PlayTimeavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$88.41	10% 41-389 (430)
BI BillBenter2026	PlayTimeavg 71.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$20.32	30% 244-582 (826)
CA calculate10	PlayTimeavg 83.8¢	$1.0K	$833.27	+$32.7	36% 75-132 (207)
R2 r2d2v2	PlayTimeavg 56¢	$687.5	$681.36	-$6.14	14% 31-186 (217)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	PlayTimeavg 80.8¢	$831.8	$672.56	-$159.23	56% 4065-3175 (7240)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 44.4¢	$1.0K	$185	+$1	52% 833-779 (1612)
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 50¢	$62.5	$110	+$228.5
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 44.4¢	$277.5	$75	-$227.5
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	PlayTimeavg 77.9¢	$180.5	$184.21	+$3.71	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
Hawk.live	PlayTimeavg 88¢	$139.6	$158.56	+$18.96	57% 691-518 (1209)
38 38791873984189<$100	PlayTimeavg 75.3¢	$57.66	$57.34	+$6.07	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
poshposh<$100	PlayTimeavg 76.2¢	$48.71	$55.97	+$7.26	48% 1134-1214 (2348)
DO DotaBotReborn<$100	PlayTimeavg 59.8¢	$29.88	$29.98	+$0.1	68% 52-24 (76)
MR MrConsistencyCTR<$100	Power Rangersavg 15.9¢	$20.77	$24.1	+$3.33	34% 27-53 (80)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Power Rangersavg 14.8¢	$62.75	$16.17	-$34.65	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Power Rangersavg 45.2¢	$5.5K	$6.1	$-5.5K	— 8-3 (11)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Power Rangersavg 20.6¢	$1.7K	$4.12	$-1.7K	47% 473-538 (1011)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Power Rangersavg 42¢	$2.1	$2	-$0.1	41% 700-1011 (1711)

pvc975

PlayTime

Invested

$6,894.06

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$3.45

Record

98%

349-6 (355)

gxxyy

PlayTime

Invested

$4,698.87

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$598.54

Record

69%

509-227 (736)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

PlayTime

Invested

$1,726.58

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

17%

17-82 (99)

RandomVibecoder

PlayTime

Invested

$2,880.11

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

48%

537-587 (1124)

Skritopoolniy

PlayTime

Invested

$1,313.54

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$88.41

Record

10%

41-389 (430)

BillBenter2026

PlayTime

Invested

$1,325.59

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$20.32

Record

30%

244-582 (826)

calculate10

PlayTime

Invested

$1,045.62

Value

$833.27

PnL

+$32.7

Record

36%

75-132 (207)

r2d2v2

PlayTime

Invested

$687.5

Value

$681.36

PnL

-$6.14

Record

14%

31-186 (217)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

PlayTime

Invested

$831.8

Value

$672.56

PnL

-$159.23

Record

56%

4065-3175 (7240)

NotJumpARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,012

Value

$185

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Both legs:

PlayTime$62.550¢+$228.5

Power Rangers$277.544.4¢-$227.5

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

PlayTime

Invested

$180.5

Value

$184.21

PnL

+$3.71

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

Hawk.live

PlayTime

Invested

$139.6

Value

$158.56

PnL

+$18.96

Record

57%

691-518 (1209)

38791873984189<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$57.66

Value

$57.34

PnL

+$6.07

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

poshposh<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$48.71

Value

$55.97

PnL

+$7.26

Record

48%

1134-1214 (2348)

DotaBotReborn<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.98

PnL

+$0.1

Record

68%

52-24 (76)

MrConsistencyCTR<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$20.77

Value

$24.1

PnL

+$3.33

Record

34%

27-53 (80)

suntoriCTR<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$62.75

Value

$16.17

PnL

-$34.65

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$5,510.07

Value

$6.1

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

—

8-3 (11)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,700

Value

$4.12

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

47%

473-538 (1011)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$2.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

700-1011 (1711)

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

14 of 19 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PlayTime wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.