Dota 2: PlayTime vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold LEGION (47%) · LEGION at 60¢ · $37K held · ended Nov 7

PlayTime40¢LEGION60¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LEGION

Consensus Traders

LEGION 47%

Total Value

$37.2K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 60¢

+23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime40%

LEGION60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION8 traders

Total Value$29.0K

Total Shares53,833

Combined PnL+$2.7K

PlayTime9 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares17,621

Combined PnL-$419.04

LEGION — 47%PlayTime — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Skritopoolniy	LEGIONavg 47.9¢	$8.2K	$9.6K	+$1.4K	47% 639-734 (1373)
RA RandomVibecoder	LEGIONavg 48.3¢	$5.5K	$6.4K	+$933.16	48% 855-909 (1764)
SI Sisyphus-	LEGIONavg 49.7¢	$6.3K	$6.1K	-$53	55% 791-650 (1441)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	LEGIONavg 48¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$569.99	43% 72-96 (168)
29 0x2931...7b81CTR	PlayTimeavg 48.9¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$42.32	—
GO GooGooGaga1CTR	PlayTimeavg 50¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	+$120	78% 69-20 (89)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	LEGIONavg 48.5¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$39.95	50% 565-573 (1138)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	PlayTimeavg 53.1¢	$3.2K	$1.4K	-$517.11	68% 117-56 (173)
TR Trungl	LEGIONavg 51.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$25.04	61% 410-265 (675)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR	PlayTimeavg 41.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$9.59	68% 625-299 (924)
cs2.quantCTR	PlayTimeavg 56.3¢	$725.8	$690.08	-$35.72	58% 111-80 (191)
maytopmay	LEGIONavg 55.4¢	$556.08	$467.49	-$61.56	61% 311-201 (512)
GT gt7238CTR	PlayTimeavg 39.7¢	$309.38	$417.3	+$107.92	45% 670-828 (1498)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	PlayTimeavg 47.6¢	$374.63	$353.51	-$21.13	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	PlayTimeavg 49.3¢	$116.25	$94.37	-$21.87	54% 3572-3080 (6652)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	PlayTimeavg 42.9¢	$30	$30.77	+$0.77	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	LEGIONavg 46¢	$10.79	$13.25	+$2.46	50% 21821-22062 (43883)

Skritopoolniy

LEGION

Invested

$8,225.04

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

47%

639-734 (1373)

RandomVibecoder

LEGION

Invested

$5,468.23

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$933.16

Record

48%

855-909 (1764)

Sisyphus-

LEGION

Invested

$6,342.94

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$53

Record

55%

791-650 (1441)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

LEGION

Invested

$2,879.97

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$569.99

Record

43%

72-96 (168)

0x2931...7b81CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$2,413.56

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$42.32

Record

—

GooGooGaga1CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$120

Record

78%

69-20 (89)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

LEGION

Invested

$1,885.74

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$39.95

Record

50%

565-573 (1138)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$3,225.65

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$517.11

Record

68%

117-56 (173)

Trungl

LEGION

Invested

$1,091.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$25.04

Record

61%

410-265 (675)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$1,029.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$9.59

Record

68%

625-299 (924)

cs2.quantCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$725.8

Value

$690.08

PnL

-$35.72

Record

58%

111-80 (191)

maytopmay

LEGION

Invested

$556.08

Value

$467.49

PnL

-$61.56

Record

61%

311-201 (512)

gt7238CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$309.38

Value

$417.3

PnL

+$107.92

Record

45%

670-828 (1498)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$374.63

Value

$353.51

PnL

-$21.13

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$116.25

Value

$94.37

PnL

-$21.87

Record

54%

3572-3080 (6652)

pauleta23CTR<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$30

Value

$30.77

PnL

+$0.77

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

omnibus-076daa<$100

LEGION

Invested

$10.79

Value

$13.25

PnL

+$2.46

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LEGION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.