Dota 2: PlayTime vs LEGION (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group B
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold LEGION (63%) · LEGION at 57¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
LEGION
8
LEGION 63%
$3.8K
$99.43
51.3¢ → 57.5¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralLEGION at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 forsenxd | LEGIONavg 50.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$69.56 | 53% 1123-983 (2106) |
GA Gaditima | LEGIONavg 52.7¢ | $790 | $787.5 | -$2.5 | 47% 7503-8319 (15822) |
BI biying88888CTR | PlayTimeavg 44.9¢ | $641.78 | $679.25 | +$37.47 | 66% 173-91 (264) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | LEGIONavg 51¢ | $94.45 | $88.89 | -$5.56 | 45% 205-249 (454) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | PlayTimeavg 49.1¢ | $99.05 | $86.5 | -$12.56 | 52% 9022-8174 (17196) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | PlayTimeavg 47¢ | $20.92 | $14.91 | -$6.01 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | LEGIONavg 52.4¢ | $6.81 | $6.83 | +$0.01 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
 VeryLucky888 | LEGIONavg 48.8¢ | $583.74 | $0.88 | +$19.01 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
forsenxdInvested
$2,027.58
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$69.56
Record
53%
1123-983 (2106)
Invested
$790
Value
$787.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
47%
7503-8319 (15822)
Invested
$641.78
Value
$679.25
PnL
+$37.47
Record
66%
173-91 (264)
Invested
$94.45
Value
$88.89
PnL
-$5.56
Record
45%
205-249 (454)
Invested
$99.05
Value
$86.5
PnL
-$12.56
Record
52%
9022-8174 (17196)
Invested
$20.92
Value
$14.91
PnL
-$6.01
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$6.81
Value
$6.83
PnL
+$0.01
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
VeryLucky888Invested
$583.74
Value
$0.88
PnL
+$19.01
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.