Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group A
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit Academy (50%) · Spirit Academy at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Spirit Academy
4
Spirit Academy 50%
2 arb excluded
$1.5K
$191.55
52.5¢ → 60.5¢
+15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSpirit Academy at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Spirit Academy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU JuiceFarm | Spirit Academyavg 52.8¢ | $664.7 | $856.08 | +$191.38 | — 12-7 (19) |
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100 | Spirit Academyavg 64¢ | $434.87 | $460.96 | +$26.09 | 31% 278-610 (888) |
| └ Spirit Academy leg | Spirit Academyavg 64¢ | $289.15 | $277.85 | -$11.3 | |
| └ PuckChamp leg | PuckChampavg 30.6¢ | $145.72 | $183.11 | +$37.39 | |
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100 | Spirit Academyavg 67.7¢ | $135.93 | $132.64 | -$3.29 | 11% 24-201 (225) |
| └ Spirit Academy leg | Spirit Academyavg 67.7¢ | $82.43 | $83.99 | +$1.56 | |
| └ PuckChamp leg | PuckChampavg 34.1¢ | $53.5 | $48.65 | -$4.85 | |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Spirit Academyavg 46¢ | $23 | $34 | +$11 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | PuckChampavg 47¢ | $31.88 | $21.03 | -$10.85 | 22% 33-116 (149) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | PuckChampavg 39¢ | $1.81 | $1.83 | +$0.02 | 51% 1818-1777 (3595) |
Invested
$664.7
Value
$856.08
PnL
+$191.38
Record
—
12-7 (19)
Invested
$434.87
Value
$460.96
PnL
+$26.09
Record
31%
278-610 (888)
Both legs:
Invested
$135.93
Value
$132.64
PnL
-$3.29
Record
11%
24-201 (225)
Both legs:
Invested
$23
Value
$34
PnL
+$11
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
Invested
$31.88
Value
$21.03
PnL
-$10.85
Record
22%
33-116 (149)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.83
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
1818-1777 (3595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.