Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold PARIVISION, while the market favors Team Yandex (88%). 30 of 67 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner

30 of 67 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (45%) · PARIVISION at 13¢ · $448K held · ends Oct 29

PARIVISION13¢Team Yandex87¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 45%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$448.2K

Combined PnL

$-13.0K

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 12.5¢

-77% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

AvoidPARIVISION at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

30 of 67 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Team Yandex 88%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION13%

Team Yandex88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION30 traders

Total Value$141.0K

Total Shares294,180

Combined PnL$-22.5K

Team Yandex37 traders

Total Value$122.3K

Total Shares243,063

Combined PnL+$9.5K

PARIVISION — 45%Team Yandex — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhctARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 58¢	$57.1K	$57.8K	+$776.19	54% 481-409 (890)
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 40.9¢	$23.7K	$43.2K	+$19.5K
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 58¢	$33.4K	$14.7K	$-18.7K
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	PARIVISIONavg 51.5¢	$26.8K	$36.2K	+$9.4K	49% 1153-1197 (2350)
GX gxxyyARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 44¢	$31.3K	$35.2K	+$3.9K	69% 488-217 (705)
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 44¢	$16.4K	$25.8K	+$9.4K
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 48.8¢	$14.8K	$9.4K	$-5.4K
Medo3DARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 40.7¢	$23.1K	$26.3K	+$3.2K	40% 164-249 (413)
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 40.7¢	$13.1K	$17.5K	+$4.4K
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 51.8¢	$10.1K	$8.8K	$-1.2K
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Yandexavg 47.9¢	$20.0K	$23.2K	+$3.2K	58% 890-649 (1539)
SkritopoolniyARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 37.9¢	$19.3K	$17.0K	+$7.9K	48% 601-641 (1242)
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 37.9¢	$7.0K	$11.1K	+$4.0K
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 40.1¢	$5.9K	$6.0K	+$3.9K
UN UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 58.6¢	$37.4K	$15.8K	$-7.2K	68% 70-33 (103)
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 56.4¢	$6.8K	$9.7K	+$2.9K
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 58.6¢	$18.4K	$6.1K	$-10.1K
FA fantasy7788CTR	PARIVISIONavg 47.2¢	$15.0K	$14.1K	-$868.62	41% 78-112 (190)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620	Team Yandexavg 44.4¢	$10.1K	$11.9K	+$2.8K	56% 48-37 (85)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	PARIVISIONavg 51¢	$12.5K	$10.9K	$-1.6K	58% 1857-1334 (3191)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	PARIVISIONavg 56.3¢	$13.1K	$10.4K	$-2.7K	57% 720-548 (1268)
forsenxd	Team Yandexavg 52.1¢	$10.1K	$9.7K	-$313.44	53% 1049-916 (1965)
QW qwerqr1251251ARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 61¢	$19.5K	$9.5K	$-4.8K	70% 294-128 (422)
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 69.5¢	$5.8K	$6.7K	+$434.71
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 61¢	$8.8K	$2.8K	$-5.2K
YA yadensCTR	PARIVISIONavg 58.4¢	$11.8K	$9.2K	$-2.6K	70% 151-65 (216)
CyberScore.live	Team Yandexavg 35.9¢	$9.4K	$8.7K	-$617.18	46% 401-470 (871)
errormargin3CTR	PARIVISIONavg 71.2¢	$14.3K	$8.4K	-$693.9	54% 238-205 (443)
MA madar78CTR	PARIVISIONavg 58.4¢	$49.6K	$8.2K	$-13.6K	69% 58-26 (84)
SI SineNooneEI	Team Yandexavg 44¢	$8.8K	$7.9K	-$900	55% 915-752 (1667)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 47.3¢	$8.7K	$7.6K	$-1.1K	49% 795-844 (1639)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 50.2¢	$2.9K	$4.1K	+$1.2K
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 47.3¢	$5.8K	$3.5K	$-2.3K
BU BunnycatCTR	PARIVISIONavg 48.4¢	$7.2K	$6.0K	$-1.2K	70% 77-33 (110)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872CTR	PARIVISIONavg 52¢	$6.2K	$5.9K	-$300	43% 333-444 (777)
R2 r2d2v2	Team Yandexavg 45¢	$4.8K	$5.9K	+$1.1K	54% 290-246 (536)
ST StakesForFun	Team Yandexavg 58.2¢	$24.1K	$5.8K	-$763.56	64% 378-216 (594)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	Team Yandexavg 43¢	$4.3K	$5.5K	+$1.2K	50% 552-551 (1103)
EX ExcentricoCTR	PARIVISIONavg 61.8¢	$6.6K	$5.4K	+$1.4K	63% 299-172 (471)

pnhctARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$57,073.25

Value

$57.8K

PnL

+$776.19

Record

54%

481-409 (890)

Both legs:

Team Yandex$23,676.9840.9¢+$19.5K

PARIVISION$33,396.2758¢$-18.7K

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$26,784.17

Value

$36.2K

PnL

+$9.4K

Record

49%

1153-1197 (2350)

gxxyyARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$31,282.29

Value

$35.2K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

69%

488-217 (705)

Both legs:

Team Yandex$16,433.0144¢+$9.4K

PARIVISION$14,849.2848.8¢$-5.4K

Medo3DARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$23,147.25

Value

$26.3K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

40%

164-249 (413)

Both legs:

Team Yandex$13,085.2240.7¢+$4.4K

PARIVISION$10,062.0351.8¢$-1.2K

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Yandex

Invested

$20,046.73

Value

$23.2K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

58%

890-649 (1539)

SkritopoolniyARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$19,346.34

Value

$17.0K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

48%

601-641 (1242)

Both legs:

Team Yandex$7,046.537.9¢+$4.0K

PARIVISION$5,911.8740.1¢+$3.9K

UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$37,397.36

Value

$15.8K

PnL

$-7.2K

Record

68%

70-33 (103)

Both legs:

Team Yandex$6,764.256.4¢+$2.9K

PARIVISION$18,409.2458.6¢$-10.1K

fantasy7788CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$15,000

Value

$14.1K

PnL

-$868.62

Record

41%

78-112 (190)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620

Team Yandex

Invested

$10,069.41

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

56%

48-37 (85)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$12,494.99

Value

$10.9K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

58%

1857-1334 (3191)

Sisyphus-CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$13,130

Value

$10.4K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

57%

720-548 (1268)

forsenxd

Team Yandex

Invested

$10,059.55

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$313.44

Record

53%

1049-916 (1965)

qwerqr1251251ARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$19,464.7

Value

$9.5K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

70%

294-128 (422)

Both legs:

Team Yandex$5,816.0969.5¢+$434.71

PARIVISION$8,810.6161¢$-5.2K

yadensCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$11,791.25

Value

$9.2K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

70%

151-65 (216)

CyberScore.live

Team Yandex

Invested

$9,350.22

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$617.18

Record

46%

401-470 (871)

errormargin3CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$14,330.79

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$693.9

Record

54%

238-205 (443)

madar78CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$49,620.9

Value

$8.2K

PnL

$-13.6K

Record

69%

58-26 (84)

SineNooneEI

Team Yandex

Invested

$8,800

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$900

Record

55%

915-752 (1667)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$8,703.98

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

49%

795-844 (1639)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$2,862.4950.2¢+$1.2K

Team Yandex$5,841.4947.3¢$-2.3K

BunnycatCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$7,199.1

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

70%

77-33 (110)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$6,239.99

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$300

Record

43%

333-444 (777)

r2d2v2

Team Yandex

Invested

$4,763.45

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

290-246 (536)

StakesForFun

Team Yandex

Invested

$24,076.83

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$763.56

Record

64%

378-216 (594)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Team Yandex

Invested

$4,274.2

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

50%

552-551 (1103)

ExcentricoCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$6,570.15

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

63%

299-172 (471)

Research grade

AvoidPARIVISION at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

30 of 67 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Team Yandex 88%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.