Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

34 of 55 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (62%) · PARIVISION at 100¢ · $193K held · ends Oct 28

PARIVISION>99¢Team Liquid<1¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 62%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$192.6K

Combined PnL

-$41.42

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 99.6¢

+29% since entry · 34 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

34 of 55 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION100%

Team Liquid0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION34 traders

Total Value$162.3K

Total Shares194,983

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Team Liquid21 traders

Total Value$22.1K

Total Shares109,010

Combined PnL$-4.3K

PARIVISION — 62%Team Liquid — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	PARIVISIONavg 77.5¢	$24.9K	$25.2K	+$264	54% 450-390 (840)
SI Sisyphus-	PARIVISIONavg 71.7¢	$22.5K	$23.1K	+$580.32	57% 710-546 (1256)
PI pipipi150	PARIVISIONavg 97¢	$18.2K	$18.1K	-$147.97	65% 1712-912 (2624)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	PARIVISIONavg 72¢	$13.0K	$13.1K	+$92.22	58% 882-643 (1525)
GE GeorgeRe	PARIVISIONavg 73.5¢	$11.9K	$11.8K	-$165.97	54% 1065-924 (1989)
GX gxxyy	PARIVISIONavg 78.9¢	$10.3K	$11.2K	+$933.79	69% 476-215 (691)
YA yadens	PARIVISIONavg 76.8¢	$12.0K	$8.5K	-$695.91	70% 143-61 (204)
cat3xcat3xARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 27.6¢	$8.5K	$6.8K	-$92.05	56% 320-249 (569)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 27.6¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$52.11
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 80.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$144.17
maytopmay	PARIVISIONavg 76.6¢	$4.9K	$4.7K	-$196.58	61% 270-175 (445)
EX Excentrico	PARIVISIONavg 79.6¢	$5.0K	$4.4K	+$145.78	63% 290-167 (457)
QW qwerqr1251251	PARIVISIONavg 82¢	$6.3K	$4.3K	+$612.84	69% 287-126 (413)
ST StakesForFun	PARIVISIONavg 80.6¢	$22.5K	$4.1K	+$1.5K	63% 367-215 (582)
RR rrooster	PARIVISIONavg 72.9¢	$3.6K	$4.0K	+$355	63% 1320-784 (2104)
OR origatoCTR	Team Liquidavg 25.7¢	$3.3K	$3.6K	+$233.1	48% 21-23 (44)
SI SineNooneEICTR	Team Liquidavg 29.8¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$358.25	55% 913-750 (1663)
minji	PARIVISIONavg 78.8¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$126.71	52% 1779-1629 (3408)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620	PARIVISIONavg 68.8¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$140.75	55% 38-31 (69)
CORGIICTR	Team Liquidavg 28.5¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$95	41% 385-555 (940)
Up0nly	PARIVISIONavg 76.3¢	$4.2K	$2.4K	+$126.37	68% 962-452 (1414)
TokennCTR	Team Liquidavg 28¢	$3.0K	$2.2K	-$748.85	48% 646-700 (1346)
BA babyboy9	PARIVISIONavg 73.9¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$190.79	54% 334-284 (618)
R2 r2d2v2	PARIVISIONavg 71¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$38.06	54% 289-244 (533)
Q7 q7662504	PARIVISIONavg 98¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$9.7	89% 361-46 (407)
WE wewbo	PARIVISIONavg 76.1¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$87.16	52% 134-126 (260)
CA Catch8877	PARIVISIONavg 72¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$11.4	51% 147-139 (286)

pnhct

PARIVISION

Invested

$24,918.51

Value

$25.2K

PnL

+$264

Record

54%

450-390 (840)

Sisyphus-

PARIVISION

Invested

$22,485

Value

$23.1K

PnL

+$580.32

Record

57%

710-546 (1256)

pipipi150

PARIVISION

Invested

$18,249.86

Value

$18.1K

PnL

-$147.97

Record

65%

1712-912 (2624)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

PARIVISION

Invested

$13,000

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$92.22

Record

58%

882-643 (1525)

GeorgeRe

PARIVISION

Invested

$11,922.47

Value

$11.8K

PnL

-$165.97

Record

54%

1065-924 (1989)

gxxyy

PARIVISION

Invested

$10,273.53

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$933.79

Record

69%

476-215 (691)

yadens

PARIVISION

Invested

$12,029.18

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$695.91

Record

70%

143-61 (204)

cat3xcat3xARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,528.68

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$92.05

Record

56%

320-249 (569)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$5,442.5227.6¢+$52.11

PARIVISION$1,509.9980.2¢-$144.17

maytopmay

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,851.3

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$196.58

Record

61%

270-175 (445)

Excentrico

PARIVISION

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$145.78

Record

63%

290-167 (457)

qwerqr1251251

PARIVISION

Invested

$6,281.97

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$612.84

Record

69%

287-126 (413)

StakesForFun

PARIVISION

Invested

$22,492.87

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

63%

367-215 (582)

rrooster

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,645

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$355

Record

63%

1320-784 (2104)

origatoCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,347.39

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$233.1

Record

48%

21-23 (44)

SineNooneEICTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,210.05

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$358.25

Record

55%

913-750 (1663)

minji

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,704.69

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$126.71

Record

52%

1779-1629 (3408)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,586.91

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$140.75

Record

55%

38-31 (69)

CORGIICTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,673.29

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$95

Record

41%

385-555 (940)

Up0nly

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,167.98

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$126.37

Record

68%

962-452 (1414)

TokennCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,981.7

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$748.85

Record

48%

646-700 (1346)

babyboy9

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$190.79

Record

54%

334-284 (618)

r2d2v2

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,801.74

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$38.06

Record

54%

289-244 (533)

q7662504

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,788.75

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$9.7

Record

89%

361-46 (407)

wewbo

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,152.71

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$87.16

Record

52%

134-126 (260)

Catch8877

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,641.6

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$11.4

Record

51%

147-139 (286)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

34 of 55 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.