Dota 2: PARIVISION vs DO KONCA - Game 2 Winner

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (89%) · PARIVISION at 82¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

PARIVISION82¢DO KONCA18¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 89%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$118.47

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 81.5¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION82%

DO KONCA19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION8 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,025

Combined PnL+$118.11

DO KONCA1 trader

Total Value$3.93

Total Shares18

Combined PnL+$0.36

PARIVISION — 89%DO KONCA — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPARIVISION 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000PARIVISION 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
forsenxd	PARIVISIONavg 75.9¢	$2.8K	$2.3K	+$103.91	48% 364-387 (751)
NO NotJump	PARIVISIONavg 54.2¢	$601	$548	+$7	54% 455-382 (837)
SU suntori	PARIVISIONavg 79.9¢	$199.99	$203.99	+$4	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	PARIVISIONavg 76¢	$70.22	$72.27	+$2.05	44% 25-32 (57)
poshposh<$100	PARIVISIONavg 77.5¢	$23.22	$23.37	+$0.14	47% 532-590 (1122)
38 38791873984189<$100	PARIVISIONavg 78.3¢	$41.85	$19.77	+$0.92	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	PARIVISIONavg 78.4¢	$19.6	$19.5	-$0.1	38% 492-810 (1302)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	PARIVISIONavg 77¢	$14.99	$15.19	+$0.19	40% 3295-4922 (8217)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	DO KONCAavg 20¢	$3.58	$3.93	+$0.36	41% 552-797 (1349)

forsenxd

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,774.55

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$103.91

Record

48%

364-387 (751)

NotJump

PARIVISION

Invested

$601

Value

$548

PnL

+$7

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

suntori

PARIVISION

Invested

$199.99

Value

$203.99

PnL

+$4

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$70.22

Value

$72.27

PnL

+$2.05

Record

44%

25-32 (57)

poshposh<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$23.22

Value

$23.37

PnL

+$0.14

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

38791873984189<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$41.85

Value

$19.77

PnL

+$0.92

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

ameisgoat11<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

38%

492-810 (1302)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$14.99

Value

$15.19

PnL

+$0.19

Record

40%

3295-4922 (8217)

sentrioCTR<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$3.58

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$0.36

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPARIVISION 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000PARIVISION 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.