Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs DO KONCA (+1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (50%) · PARIVISION at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

PARIVISION60¢DO KONCA40¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$1.36

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 60¢

-8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION60%

DO KONCA40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,968

Combined PnL-$87.46

DO KONCA4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,054

Combined PnL+$88.83

PARIVISION — 50%DO KONCA — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	PARIVISIONavg 65.4¢	$1.1K	$998.7	-$90	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	DO KONCAavg 33¢	$626.99	$674.49	+$47.5	63% 25-15 (40)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	DO KONCAavg 36.9¢	$278.01	$312.35	+$34.34	55% 52-42 (94)
DA darkumbreon88	PARIVISIONavg 65¢	$175.64	$177.02	+$1.38	61% 959-608 (1567)
forsenxdCTR	DO KONCAavg 33¢	$117.41	$124.53	+$7.12	48% 363-387 (750)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	DO KONCAavg 36.8¢	$34.44	$29.17	-$0.13	38% 487-808 (1295)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	PARIVISIONavg 61¢	$15.25	$16.25	+$1	43% 23-31 (54)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	PARIVISIONavg 63¢	$5	$5.15	+$0.16	40% 3254-4905 (8159)

suntori

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,088.7

Value

$998.7

PnL

-$90

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

JuiceFarmCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$626.99

Value

$674.49

PnL

+$47.5

Record

63%

25-15 (40)

yishiwuchengCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$278.01

Value

$312.35

PnL

+$34.34

Record

55%

52-42 (94)

darkumbreon88

PARIVISION

Invested

$175.64

Value

$177.02

PnL

+$1.38

Record

61%

959-608 (1567)

forsenxdCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$117.41

Value

$124.53

PnL

+$7.12

Record

48%

363-387 (750)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$34.44

Value

$29.17

PnL

-$0.13

Record

38%

487-808 (1295)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$15.25

Value

$16.25

PnL

+$1

Record

43%

23-31 (54)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.16

Record

40%

3254-4905 (8159)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.