Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (89%) · GamerLegion at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

PARIVISION<1¢GamerLegion>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

GamerLegion

Consensus Traders

GamerLegion 89%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$143.19

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION0%

GamerLegion100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GamerLegion8 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,790

Combined PnL+$305.24

PARIVISION1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,803

Combined PnL-$448.44

GamerLegion — 89%PARIVISION — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+75 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on GamerLegion. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpGamerLegion 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperGamerLegion 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGamerLegion 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000GamerLegion 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PI pipipi150	GamerLegionavg 99.9¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$1.65	67% 82-40 (122)
VI vibing123CTR	PARIVISIONavg 64¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$448.44	61% 1200-763 (1963)
YI yishiwucheng	GamerLegionavg 37.2¢	$115.16	$185.56	+$133.51	58% 106-78 (184)
NO NotJump<$100	GamerLegionavg 36¢	$36	$99.9	+$63.9	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
CA Catch8877<$100	GamerLegionavg 35¢	$23.2	$66.21	+$43.02	53% 145-129 (274)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	GamerLegionavg 37¢	$20.35	$54.94	+$34.59	46% 621-730 (1351)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	GamerLegionavg 59¢	$39.56	$47.91	+$8.34	43% 851-1135 (1986)
SU suntori<$100	GamerLegionavg 57.8¢	$13.88	$23.98	+$10.1	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	GamerLegionavg 33¢	$5	$15.13	+$10.14	38% 3804-6225 (10029)

pipipi150

GamerLegion

Invested

$3,292.68

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.65

Record

67%

82-40 (122)

vibing123CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,793.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$448.44

Record

61%

1200-763 (1963)

yishiwucheng

GamerLegion

Invested

$115.16

Value

$185.56

PnL

+$133.51

Record

58%

106-78 (184)

NotJump<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$36

Value

$99.9

PnL

+$63.9

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Catch8877<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$23.2

Value

$66.21

PnL

+$43.02

Record

53%

145-129 (274)

omnibus-076daa<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$20.35

Value

$54.94

PnL

+$34.59

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

ameisgoat11<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$39.56

Value

$47.91

PnL

+$8.34

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

suntori<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$13.88

Value

$23.98

PnL

+$10.1

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

Value

$15.13

PnL

+$10.14

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+75 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on GamerLegion. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpGamerLegion 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperGamerLegion 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGamerLegion 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000GamerLegion 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GamerLegion wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.