Dota 2: potn9ki vs Zenith (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Zenith (40%) · Zenith at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11

potn9ki48¢Zenith52¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zenith

Consensus Traders

Zenith 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$754.73

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 52¢

-20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralZenith at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zenith

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

potn9ki48%

Zenith52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zenith4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,438

Combined PnL-$877.51

potn9ki6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,821

Combined PnL+$122.78

Zenith — 40%potn9ki — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Zenith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalepotn9ki 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrpotn9ki 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000potn9ki 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO ColdBloodedARB<$100	potn9kiavg 66.8¢	$4.6K	$3.5K	$-1.1K	72% 158-60 (218)
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 66.8¢	$3.5K	$2.8K	-$718.07
└ Zenith leg	Zenithavg 68.8¢	$1.1K	$751.38	-$349.37
Neimuking	Zenithavg 63.5¢	$1.6K	$868.71	-$683.27	60% 70-46 (116)
AM ameisgoat11CTR	potn9kiavg 50.4¢	$585.02	$711.32	+$25.12	52% 8872-8054 (16926)
JA JabJabich	Zenithavg 70.5¢	$564.25	$376	-$188.25	61% 203-130 (333)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	potn9kiavg 31¢	$143.48	$305.47	+$74.05	64% 2021-1127 (3148)
CI cigarettesCTR	potn9kiavg 39.8¢	$89.43	$148.4	+$16.25	53% 24089-21161 (45250)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 41.4¢	$55.67	$88.78	+$7.12	50% 21439-21699 (43138)
LR lryyy<$100	Zenithavg 55.7¢	$58.36	$50.15	-$8.21	47% 9480-10606 (20086)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 68.4¢	$7.04	$6.88	-$0.16	48% 7454-8169 (15623)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 57¢	$4.6	$5.05	+$0.4	54% 10159-8530 (18689)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Zenithavg 33.3¢	$2.27	$4.5	+$2.23	48% 7428-7965 (15393)

ColdBloodedARB<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$4,573.83

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

72%

158-60 (218)

Both legs:

potn9ki$3,472.8866.8¢-$718.07

Zenith$1,100.6968.8¢-$349.37

Neimuking

Zenith

Invested

$1,576.06

Value

$868.71

PnL

-$683.27

Record

60%

70-46 (116)

ameisgoat11CTR

potn9ki

Invested

$585.02

Value

$711.32

PnL

+$25.12

Record

52%

8872-8054 (16926)

JabJabich

Zenith

Invested

$564.25

Value

$376

PnL

-$188.25

Record

61%

203-130 (333)

darkumbreon88CTR

potn9ki

Invested

$143.48

Value

$305.47

PnL

+$74.05

Record

64%

2021-1127 (3148)

cigarettesCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$89.43

Value

$148.4

PnL

+$16.25

Record

53%

24089-21161 (45250)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$55.67

Value

$88.78

PnL

+$7.12

Record

50%

21439-21699 (43138)

lryyy<$100

Zenith

Invested

$58.36

Value

$50.15

PnL

-$8.21

Record

47%

9480-10606 (20086)

GaditimaCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$7.04

Value

$6.88

PnL

-$0.16

Record

48%

7454-8169 (15623)

Pan9XCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$4.6

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

10159-8530 (18689)

Oddstorm<$100

Zenith

Invested

$2.27

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$2.23

Record

48%

7428-7965 (15393)

Research grade

NeutralZenith at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Zenith

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Zenith. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalepotn9ki 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrpotn9ki 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000potn9ki 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zenith wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.