Dota 2: potn9ki vs Team Synapse - Game 2 Winner
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (43%) · Team Synapse at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12
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Neutral
Team Synapse
7
Team Synapse 43%
$9.6K
$3.0K
65.3¢ → 100¢
+53% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Synapse at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA RandomVibecoder | Team Synapseavg 63.7¢ | $5.4K | $8.5K | +$3.1K | 48% 515-563 (1078) |
NO NotJumpCTR | potn9kiavg 50¢ | $525 | $488.5 | +$13 | 54% 455-382 (837) |
RO Rock.San | Team Synapseavg 99.1¢ | $339.56 | $340.58 | +$1.03 | 94% 81-5 (86) |
 poshposhCTR | potn9kiavg 31.1¢ | $288.68 | $187.34 | -$101.34 | 47% 532-590 (1122) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Team Synapseavg 84¢ | $83.99 | $70.99 | -$13 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | potn9kiavg 47.4¢ | $59.89 | $22.59 | -$37.3 | 44% 389-495 (884) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | potn9kiavg 24¢ | $5 | $5.62 | +$0.62 | 40% 3295-4922 (8217) |
Invested
$5,430.15
Value
$8.5K
PnL
+$3.1K
Record
48%
515-563 (1078)
Invested
$525
Value
$488.5
PnL
+$13
Record
54%
455-382 (837)
Invested
$339.56
Value
$340.58
PnL
+$1.03
Record
94%
81-5 (86)
poshposhCTRInvested
$288.68
Value
$187.34
PnL
-$101.34
Record
47%
532-590 (1122)
Invested
$83.99
Value
$70.99
PnL
-$13
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$59.89
Value
$22.59
PnL
-$37.3
Record
44%
389-495 (884)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.62
PnL
+$0.62
Record
40%
3295-4922 (8217)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.