Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Synapse, while the market favors potn9ki (100%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: potn9ki vs Team Synapse - Game 1 Winner

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (31%) · Team Synapse at 0.1¢ · $86K held · ends Nov 7

potn9ki>99¢Team Synapse<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team Synapse

Consensus Traders

Team Synapse 31%

Total Value

$86.2K

Combined PnL

$16.3K

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam Synapse at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors potn9ki 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

potn9ki100%

Team Synapse0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Synapse4 traders

Total Value$40.1K

Total Shares52,719

Combined PnL+$5.0K

potn9ki9 traders

Total Value$46.1K

Total Shares68,817

Combined PnL+$11.3K

Team Synapse — 31%potn9ki — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Team Synapseavg 66.8¢	$35.0K	$40.0K	+$5.1K	58% 955-684 (1639)
Medo3D	potn9kiavg 34.8¢	$5.6K	$16.0K	+$10.4K	41% 182-264 (446)
PV pvc975	potn9kiavg 99.9¢	$13.7K	$13.7K	+$6.84	98% 18151-375 (18526)
CA calculate10	potn9kiavg 35.9¢	$7.1K	$9.3K	+$4.8K	54% 1329-1146 (2475)
Skritopoolniy	potn9kiavg 33.4¢	$4.2K	$3.0K	$-1.3K	47% 637-731 (1368)
RA RandomVibecoder	potn9kiavg 44.4¢	$4.8K	$2.5K	$-2.2K	48% 855-909 (1764)
SI Sisyphus-	potn9kiavg 35.1¢	$1.2K	$761.4	-$350.97	55% 787-646 (1433)
PO PourpelNourpel	potn9kiavg 29.3¢	$892.62	$716.36	-$176.26	53% 667-598 (1265)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 53.3¢	$58.79	$84.32	+$25.53	59% 33226-23391 (56617)
SL SlickRick123<$100	potn9kiavg 32¢	$17.36	$49.98	+$32.62	48% 5548-6063 (11611)
PA pauleta23<$100	potn9kiavg 49.7¢	$20	$40.24	+$20.24	66% 24445-12494 (36939)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 54.4¢	$86.58	$0.08	-$86.5	47% 9568-10685 (20253)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 10¢	$12.6	$0.06	-$12.54	47% 1363-1539 (2902)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$34,951.96

Value

$40.0K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

58%

955-684 (1639)

Medo3D

potn9ki

Invested

$5,574.82

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$10.4K

Record

41%

182-264 (446)

pvc975

potn9ki

Invested

$13,669.98

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$6.84

Record

98%

18151-375 (18526)

calculate10

potn9ki

Invested

$7,119.37

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

54%

1329-1146 (2475)

Skritopoolniy

potn9ki

Invested

$4,222.15

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

47%

637-731 (1368)

RandomVibecoder

potn9ki

Invested

$4,774.61

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

48%

855-909 (1764)

Sisyphus-

potn9ki

Invested

$1,242.11

Value

$761.4

PnL

-$350.97

Record

55%

787-646 (1433)

PourpelNourpel

potn9ki

Invested

$892.62

Value

$716.36

PnL

-$176.26

Record

53%

667-598 (1265)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$58.79

Value

$84.32

PnL

+$25.53

Record

59%

33226-23391 (56617)

SlickRick123<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$17.36

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$32.62

Record

48%

5548-6063 (11611)

pauleta23<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$20

Value

$40.24

PnL

+$20.24

Record

66%

24445-12494 (36939)

lryyyCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$86.58

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$86.5

Record

47%

9568-10685 (20253)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$12.6

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$12.54

Record

47%

1363-1539 (2902)

Research grade

AvoidTeam Synapse at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors potn9ki 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Synapse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.