Dota 2: potn9ki vs Team Synapse - Game 2 Winner

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (43%) · Team Synapse at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 30

potn9ki<1¢Team Synapse>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Synapse

Consensus Traders

Team Synapse 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$238.2

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Synapse at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

potn9ki0%

Team Synapse100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Synapse3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,966

Combined PnL-$280.85

potn9ki4 traders

Total Value$195.51

Total Shares678

Combined PnL+$42.65

Team Synapse — 43%potn9ki — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 70.6¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$310.63	49% 803-846 (1649)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 70.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$57.35
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 19.9¢	$709.95	$963.23	+$253.28
PN pnhct	Team Synapseavg 78.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$55.59	54% 496-424 (920)
BU Bunnycat	Team Synapseavg 83¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$247.69	69% 83-38 (121)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190	Team Synapseavg 76.7¢	$501	$523.43	+$22.43	61% 299-192 (491)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	potn9kiavg 17.2¢	$44.04	$136.69	+$92.65	59% 30366-21076 (51442)
MR MrConsistencyCTR	potn9kiavg 28.9¢	$164.14	$54.47	-$29.31	39% 560-861 (1421)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 12.5¢	$21.68	$4.32	-$17.36	38% 3192-5199 (8391)
poshposhCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 7.1¢	$3.36	$0.02	-$3.33	59% 9923-6892 (16815)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$2,388.38

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$310.63

Record

49%

803-846 (1649)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$1,678.4370.6¢+$57.35

potn9ki$709.9519.9¢+$253.28

pnhct

Team Synapse

Invested

$2,144.62

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$55.59

Record

54%

496-424 (920)

Bunnycat

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,344.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$247.69

Record

69%

83-38 (121)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190

Team Synapse

Invested

$501

Value

$523.43

PnL

+$22.43

Record

61%

299-192 (491)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

potn9ki

Invested

$44.04

Value

$136.69

PnL

+$92.65

Record

59%

30366-21076 (51442)

MrConsistencyCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$164.14

Value

$54.47

PnL

-$29.31

Record

39%

560-861 (1421)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$21.68

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$17.36

Record

38%

3192-5199 (8391)

poshposhCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$3.36

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.33

Record

59%

9923-6892 (16815)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Synapse at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Synapse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.