Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Synapse, while the market favors potn9ki (100%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: potn9ki vs Team Synapse - Game 1 Winner

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (33%) · Team Synapse at 0.1¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 30

potn9ki>99¢Team Synapse<1¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team Synapse

Consensus Traders

Team Synapse 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam Synapse at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors potn9ki 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

potn9ki100%

Team Synapse0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Synapse3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,525

Combined PnL+$2.1K

potn9ki6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,694

Combined PnL+$288.57

Team Synapse — 33%potn9ki — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 59.3¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$353.29	49% 801-846 (1647)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 59.3¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$10.39
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 30.4¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$342.9
BU BunnycatCTR	Team Synapseavg 68.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$13.95	68% 81-38 (119)
MR MrConsistency	potn9kiavg 62.5¢	$395.44	$591.66	+$196.22	39% 560-861 (1421)
TO topdogbigboi	potn9kiavg 34.8¢	$218.39	$339.61	+$121.22	38% 3185-5189 (8374)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	Team Synapseavg 72.1¢	$2.8K	$312.5	+$2.1K	63% 68-40 (108)
XU xuxuntao	potn9kiavg 45.1¢	$288.38	$195.41	-$17.04	10% 2-19 (21)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	potn9kiavg 40¢	$87	$81.65	-$5.35	59% 30364-21075 (51439)
PN pnhctCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 43.4¢	$36.45	$37.9	+$1.45	54% 494-424 (918)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190<$100	potn9kiavg 38¢	$39.44	$32.65	-$6.79	61% 299-192 (491)
PA pauleta23<$100	potn9kiavg 91.4¢	$13.8	$14.12	+$0.32	67% 23266-11671 (34937)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$4,972.94

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$353.29

Record

49%

801-846 (1647)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$3,934.4759.3¢+$10.39

potn9ki$1,038.4630.4¢+$342.9

BunnycatCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$2,166.52

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$13.95

Record

68%

81-38 (119)

MrConsistency

potn9ki

Invested

$395.44

Value

$591.66

PnL

+$196.22

Record

39%

560-861 (1421)

topdogbigboi

potn9ki

Invested

$218.39

Value

$339.61

PnL

+$121.22

Record

38%

3185-5189 (8374)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$2,828.82

Value

$312.5

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

63%

68-40 (108)

xuxuntao

potn9ki

Invested

$288.38

Value

$195.41

PnL

-$17.04

Record

10%

2-19 (21)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$87

Value

$81.65

PnL

-$5.35

Record

59%

30364-21075 (51439)

pnhctCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$36.45

Value

$37.9

PnL

+$1.45

Record

54%

494-424 (918)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$39.44

Value

$32.65

PnL

-$6.79

Record

61%

299-192 (491)

pauleta23<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$13.8

Value

$14.12

PnL

+$0.32

Record

67%

23266-11671 (34937)

Research grade

AvoidTeam Synapse at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Synapse

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors potn9ki 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Synapse wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.