Dota 2: potn9ki vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Power Rangers (80%) · Power Rangers at 96¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Power Rangers
5
Power Rangers 80%
$9.5K
$1.7K
72.7¢ → 95.5¢
+31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralPower Rangers at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Power Rangers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | Power Rangersavg 76.4¢ | $4.2K | $5.3K | +$1.1K | 47% 443-506 (949) |
RA RandomVibecoder | Power Rangersavg 67.5¢ | $3.4K | $4.1K | +$653.65 | 48% 505-549 (1054) |
CA calculate10 | Power Rangersavg 78.3¢ | $1.0K | $125.28 | -$61.92 | 24% 34-105 (139) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Power Rangersavg 66.3¢ | $22.77 | $31.57 | +$8.8 | 45% 239-290 (529) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | potn9kiavg 28¢ | $0.96 | $1 | +$0.03 | 41% 3150-4506 (7656) |
Invested
$4,230.82
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
47%
443-506 (949)
Invested
$3,405.97
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$653.65
Record
48%
505-549 (1054)
Invested
$1,033.73
Value
$125.28
PnL
-$61.92
Record
24%
34-105 (139)
Invested
$22.77
Value
$31.57
PnL
+$8.8
Record
45%
239-290 (529)
Invested
$0.96
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.03
Record
41%
3150-4506 (7656)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.