Dota 2: potn9ki vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga Gaming (50%) · Nemiga Gaming at 100¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 7

potn9ki<1¢Nemiga Gaming>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga Gaming

Consensus Traders

Nemiga Gaming 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.7K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 100¢

+44% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

potn9ki0%

Nemiga Gaming100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga Gaming5 traders

Total Value$29.8K

Total Shares38,537

Combined PnL+$3.1K

potn9ki5 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares22,890

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Nemiga Gaming — 50%potn9ki — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Nemiga Gamingavg 65.5¢	$21.6K	$24.2K	+$2.6K	58% 955-684 (1639)
PV pvc975	Nemiga Gamingavg 99.9¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$1.66	98% 18151-375 (18526)
SkritopoolniyCTR	potn9kiavg 33.2¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$595.66	47% 637-731 (1368)
OM omnibus-076daa	Nemiga Gamingavg 78.5¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$425.43	50% 21541-21839 (43380)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	potn9kiavg 38.6¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$669.77	55% 787-646 (1433)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	potn9kiavg 33.2¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$350.69	48% 855-909 (1764)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 68¢	$1.5K	$824.15	+$364.69	54% 1328-1146 (2474)
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 21.3¢	$340.78	$423.32	+$82.55
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 68¢	$370.84	$400.83	+$282.14
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	potn9kiavg 35.1¢	$891.01	$672.47	-$218.53	53% 667-597 (1264)
maytopmayCTR	potn9kiavg 42.2¢	$287.81	$180.61	-$107.2	61% 311-201 (512)
LR lryyy<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 55¢	$60.5	$80.85	+$20.35	47% 9560-10672 (20232)
PA pauleta23<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 65.2¢	$10.18	$11.48	+$1.3	66% 24443-12494 (36937)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$21,558.07

Value

$24.2K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

58%

955-684 (1639)

pvc975

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$3,508.43

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.66

Record

98%

18151-375 (18526)

SkritopoolniyCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$2,953.11

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$595.66

Record

47%

637-731 (1368)

omnibus-076daa

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,557.36

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$425.43

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

Sisyphus-CTR

potn9ki

Invested

$2,137.14

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$669.77

Record

55%

787-646 (1433)

RandomVibecoderCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$1,738.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$350.69

Record

48%

855-909 (1764)

calculate10ARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,530.78

Value

$824.15

PnL

+$364.69

Record

54%

1328-1146 (2474)

Both legs:

potn9ki$340.7821.3¢+$82.55

Nemiga Gaming$370.8468¢+$282.14

PourpelNourpelCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$891.01

Value

$672.47

PnL

-$218.53

Record

53%

667-597 (1264)

maytopmayCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$287.81

Value

$180.61

PnL

-$107.2

Record

61%

311-201 (512)

lryyy<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$60.5

Value

$80.85

PnL

+$20.35

Record

47%

9560-10672 (20232)

pauleta23<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$10.18

Value

$11.48

PnL

+$1.3

Record

66%

24443-12494 (36937)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.