Dota 2: potn9ki vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga Gaming (100%) · Nemiga Gaming at 100¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 7

potn9ki<1¢Nemiga Gaming>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga Gaming

Consensus Traders

Nemiga Gaming 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.9K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

potn9ki0%

Nemiga Gaming100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga Gaming6 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares19,847

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNemiga Gaming 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNemiga Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNemiga Gaming 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Nemiga Gaming 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Nemiga Gamingavg 75.9¢	$11.0K	$12.5K	+$1.5K	58% 955-684 (1639)
LO looppau	Nemiga Gamingavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$347.5	99% 12958-107 (13065)
PV pvc975	Nemiga Gamingavg 99.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0.99	98% 18151-375 (18526)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	potn9kiavg 21.2¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$379.46	54% 1328-1146 (2474)
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 21.2¢	$1.2K	$800.64	-$407.71
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 82.7¢	$307.13	$319.51	+$28.25
OM omnibus-076daa	Nemiga Gamingavg 78.6¢	$635.28	$808.13	+$172.85	50% 21541-21839 (43380)
Hawk.liveARB<$100	potn9kiavg 28.2¢	$491.73	$349.83	-$141.91	56% 695-537 (1232)
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 28.2¢	$435.01	$216.18	-$218.83
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 50¢	$77.7	$133.65	+$76.93
PA pauleta23<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 99¢	$10	$8.69	-$1.32	66% 24443-12494 (36937)
LR lryyy<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 84.7¢	$32.6	$6	+$0.4	47% 9560-10672 (20232)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$11,036.11

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

58%

955-684 (1639)

looppau

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$347.5

Record

99%

12958-107 (13065)

pvc975

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,981.84

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0.99

Record

98%

18151-375 (18526)

calculate10ARB<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$1,820.18

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$379.46

Record

54%

1328-1146 (2474)

Both legs:

potn9ki$1,212.8521.2¢-$407.71

Nemiga Gaming$307.1382.7¢+$28.25

omnibus-076daa

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$635.28

Value

$808.13

PnL

+$172.85

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

Hawk.liveARB<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$491.73

Value

$349.83

PnL

-$141.91

Record

56%

695-537 (1232)

Both legs:

potn9ki$435.0128.2¢-$218.83

Nemiga Gaming$77.750¢+$76.93

pauleta23<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$10

Value

$8.69

PnL

-$1.32

Record

66%

24443-12494 (36937)

lryyy<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$32.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

47%

9560-10672 (20232)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNemiga Gaming 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNemiga Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNemiga Gaming 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Nemiga Gaming 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.