Dota 2: OG vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold OG (83%) · OG at 77¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2

OG77¢Yellow Submarine23¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

OG 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$10.5

Smart Money Entry

75.2¢ → 76.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOG at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

OG77%

Yellow Submarine24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

OG10 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares7,543

Combined PnL+$8.09

Yellow Submarine2 traders

Total Value$22.11

Total Shares86

Combined PnL+$2.4

OG — 83%Yellow Submarine — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on OG. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOG 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOG 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOG 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000OG 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP spartachio	OGavg 74.8¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$8.26	48% 704-761 (1465)
OD Oddstorm	OGavg 75¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	48% 7159-7651 (14810)
0X 0xBadB9af986EE66437BD39E6cd3D3036CbbDc31a	OGavg 76.9¢	$982.25	$977.14	-$5.11	53% 1625-1430 (3055)
VO Volodyabandit	OGavg 75.2¢	$950	$953.83	+$3.83	75% 276-90 (366)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	OGavg 74¢	$296	$298	+$2	51% 1592-1534 (3126)
OM omnibus-076daa	OGavg 76¢	$110.08	$107.91	-$2.17	50% 19815-20158 (39973)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 24.3¢	$817.17	$100.96	+$43.71	47% 13002-14566 (27568)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 24.3¢	$70.95	$65.59	-$5.36
└ OG leg	OGavg 69.9¢	$31.92	$35.37	+$49.08
GOLDCRYPT12	OGavg 70.4¢	$119.96	$90.01	+$17.49	51% 977-924 (1901)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 23¢	$18.17	$20.54	+$2.37	46% 7287-8597 (15884)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	OGavg 73.8¢	$14.75	$15	+$0.25	52% 7639-6913 (14552)
FL Flaznorp<$100	OGavg 74¢	$2.36	$2.42	+$0.06	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 22¢	$1.54	$1.57	+$0.03	43% 7731-10455 (18186)
HRTrading<$100	OGavg 74¢	$1.11	$1.12	+$0.01	53% 6371-5759 (12130)

spartachio

Invested

$2,106.88

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$8.26

Record

48%

704-761 (1465)

Oddstorm

Invested

$1,121.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

7159-7651 (14810)

0xBadB9af986EE66437BD39E6cd3D3036CbbDc31a

Invested

$982.25

Value

$977.14

PnL

-$5.11

Record

53%

1625-1430 (3055)

Volodyabandit

Invested

$950

Value

$953.83

PnL

+$3.83

Record

75%

276-90 (366)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$296

Value

$298

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1592-1534 (3126)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$110.08

Value

$107.91

PnL

-$2.17

Record

50%

19815-20158 (39973)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$817.17

Value

$100.96

PnL

+$43.71

Record

47%

13002-14566 (27568)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$70.9524.3¢-$5.36

OG$31.9269.9¢+$49.08

GOLDCRYPT12

Invested

$119.96

Value

$90.01

PnL

+$17.49

Record

51%

977-924 (1901)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$18.17

Value

$20.54

PnL

+$2.37

Record

46%

7287-8597 (15884)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$14.75

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

7639-6913 (14552)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$2.36

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1.54

Value

$1.57

PnL

+$0.03

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

6371-5759 (12130)

Research grade

NeutralOG at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on OG. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOG 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOG 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOG 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000OG 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that OG wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.