Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No Hoodwink, while the market favors oveA (100%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: No Hoodwink vs oveA - Game 2 Winner

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No Hoodwink (38%) · No Hoodwink at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

No Hoodwink<1¢oveA>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

No Hoodwink

Consensus Traders

No Hoodwink 38%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo Hoodwink at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

No Hoodwink

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors oveA 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

No Hoodwink0%

oveA100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

oveA5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,430

Combined PnL+$121.03

No Hoodwink3 traders

Total Value$59.66

Total Shares4,410

Combined PnL$-2.7K

oveA — 63%No Hoodwink — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No Hoodwink. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpoveA 100% · 3

Diverging

ctroveA 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000oveA 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	oveAavg 99.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.56	99% 190-2 (192)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190	oveAavg 61.2¢	$627.72	$640.21	+$12.49	61% 23-15 (38)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	oveAavg 99¢	$332.91	$336.1	+$3.19	84% 437-84 (521)
SU suntori	oveAavg 76.7¢	$193.99	$252.83	+$58.84	47% 1724-1982 (3706)
MR MrConsistency<$100	oveAavg 48.9¢	$44	$89.96	+$45.96	33% 15-31 (46)
poshposhCTR<$100	No Hoodwinkavg 22.4¢	$39.31	$41.51	+$2.2	48% 621-673 (1294)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	No Hoodwinkavg 37.7¢	$23.87	$16.02	-$7.85	44% 442-557 (999)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	No Hoodwinkavg 62.3¢	$2.7K	$2.13	$-2.7K	49% 39-40 (79)

pvc975

oveA

Invested

$1,109.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.56

Record

99%

190-2 (192)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190

oveA

Invested

$627.72

Value

$640.21

PnL

+$12.49

Record

61%

23-15 (38)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

oveA

Invested

$332.91

Value

$336.1

PnL

+$3.19

Record

84%

437-84 (521)

suntori

oveA

Invested

$193.99

Value

$252.83

PnL

+$58.84

Record

47%

1724-1982 (3706)

MrConsistency<$100

oveA

Invested

$44

Value

$89.96

PnL

+$45.96

Record

33%

15-31 (46)

poshposhCTR<$100

No Hoodwink

Invested

$39.31

Value

$41.51

PnL

+$2.2

Record

48%

621-673 (1294)

lryyyCTR<$100

No Hoodwink

Invested

$23.87

Value

$16.02

PnL

-$7.85

Record

44%

442-557 (999)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

No Hoodwink

Invested

$2,654.41

Value

$2.13

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

49%

39-40 (79)

Research grade

AvoidNo Hoodwink at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

No Hoodwink

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors oveA 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No Hoodwink. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpoveA 100% · 3

Diverging

ctroveA 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000oveA 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No Hoodwink wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.