Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nemiga Gaming, while the market favors Team Synapse (100%). 10 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Team Synapse (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga Gaming (59%) · Nemiga Gaming at 0.1¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 8

Nemiga Gaming<1¢Team Synapse>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nemiga Gaming

Consensus Traders

Nemiga Gaming 59%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.6K

Combined PnL

$-5.8K

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNemiga Gaming at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Team Synapse 100%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nemiga Gaming0%

Team Synapse100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Synapse7 traders

Total Value$28.0K

Total Shares34,093

Combined PnL+$9.9K

Nemiga Gaming10 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares33,349

Combined PnL$-15.7K

Team Synapse — 41%Nemiga Gaming — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoder	Team Synapseavg 52.1¢	$8.6K	$13.9K	+$5.3K	48% 855-909 (1764)
Skritopoolniy	Team Synapseavg 44.6¢	$5.1K	$5.4K	+$278.77	47% 639-734 (1373)
CA calculate10	Team Synapseavg 49.2¢	$3.2K	$3.8K	+$2.1K	54% 1335-1152 (2487)
Medo3D	Team Synapseavg 47.7¢	$1.6K	$3.3K	+$1.7K	41% 182-264 (446)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 56.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$4.26	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 56.1¢	$824.19	$815.84	-$8.36
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 43.3¢	$446.61	$459.23	+$12.62
PO PourpelNourpelARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 55.9¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$54.03	53% 668-598 (1266)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 55.9¢	$766.87	$851.01	+$84.14
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 43¢	$259	$228.88	-$30.12
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 56.4¢	$9.7K	$1.0K	$-8.4K	55% 791-650 (1441)
CR Crazyboy77ARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 33¢	$602.43	$983.6	+$381.17	53% 207-183 (390)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 33¢	$322.43	$698.6	+$376.17
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 28¢	$280	$285	+$5
AM ameisgoat11	Team Synapseavg 72.3¢	$791.64	$783.43	+$75.64	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 51.7¢	$5.6K	$758.85	$-4.8K	58% 959-687 (1646)
GA Gaditima	Team Synapseavg 43.6¢	$288.63	$648.97	+$360.35	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 54.4¢	$1.1K	$530.91	+$5.16	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 54.4¢	$332.81	$379.34	+$55.36
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 45.8¢	$182.51	$151.57	-$50.2
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 52¢	$490.36	$476.22	-$14.14	50% 565-573 (1138)
PA pauleta23	Team Synapseavg 50.4¢	$110.77	$160.22	+$49.45	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
maytopmayCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 61.1¢	$1.5K	$142.54	$-1.3K	61% 311-201 (512)
BA BackTestEoCaraioCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 56.1¢	$6.6K	$135.75	-$293.15	62% 623-384 (1007)
LR lryyyARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 37.4¢	$77.43	$91.76	+$14.34	47% 9585-10702 (20287)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 37.4¢	$50.68	$67.02	+$16.34
└ Nemiga Gaming leg	Nemiga Gamingavg 54.6¢	$26.75	$24.75	-$2
R2 r2d2v2CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 51¢	$280.49	$33	-$247.49	54% 303-256 (559)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 53.2¢	$163.83	$21.54	-$142.29	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
dips.CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 39.6¢	$101.71	$2.91	-$96.28	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 53¢	$12.69	$0.36	-$12.33	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Nemiga Gamingavg 50¢	$350	$0.35	-$349.65	48% 5549-6067 (11616)

RandomVibecoder

Team Synapse

Invested

$8,640.47

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

48%

855-909 (1764)

Skritopoolniy

Team Synapse

Invested

$5,101.27

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$278.77

Record

47%

639-734 (1373)

calculate10

Team Synapse

Invested

$3,154.65

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

54%

1335-1152 (2487)

Medo3D

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,578.78

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

41%

182-264 (446)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,270.8

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$4.26

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$824.1956.1¢-$8.36

Nemiga Gaming$446.6143.3¢+$12.62

PourpelNourpelARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,025.87

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$54.03

Record

53%

668-598 (1266)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$766.8755.9¢+$84.14

Team Synapse$25943¢-$30.12

Sisyphus-CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$9,736.46

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-8.4K

Record

55%

791-650 (1441)

Crazyboy77ARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$602.43

Value

$983.6

PnL

+$381.17

Record

53%

207-183 (390)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$322.4333¢+$376.17

Nemiga Gaming$28028¢+$5

ameisgoat11

Team Synapse

Invested

$791.64

Value

$783.43

PnL

+$75.64

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$5,600

Value

$758.85

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

58%

959-687 (1646)

Gaditima

Team Synapse

Invested

$288.63

Value

$648.97

PnL

+$360.35

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,117.54

Value

$530.91

PnL

+$5.16

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Nemiga Gaming$332.8154.4¢+$55.36

Team Synapse$182.5145.8¢-$50.2

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$490.36

Value

$476.22

PnL

-$14.14

Record

50%

565-573 (1138)

pauleta23

Team Synapse

Invested

$110.77

Value

$160.22

PnL

+$49.45

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

maytopmayCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,451.39

Value

$142.54

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

61%

311-201 (512)

BackTestEoCaraioCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$6,610.69

Value

$135.75

PnL

-$293.15

Record

62%

623-384 (1007)

lryyyARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$77.43

Value

$91.76

PnL

+$14.34

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$50.6837.4¢+$16.34

Nemiga Gaming$26.7554.6¢-$2

r2d2v2CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$280.49

Value

$33

PnL

-$247.49

Record

54%

303-256 (559)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$163.83

Value

$21.54

PnL

-$142.29

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

dips.CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$101.71

Value

$2.91

PnL

-$96.28

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$12.69

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$12.33

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

SlickRick123CTR

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$350

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$349.65

Record

48%

5549-6067 (11616)

Research grade

AvoidNemiga Gaming at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Team Synapse 100%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.