Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Lynx, while the market favors potn9ki (92%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Team Lynx vs potn9ki - Game 2 Winner

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Team Lynx (25%) · Team Lynx at 8.0¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 9

Team Lynx8¢potn9ki92¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team Lynx

Consensus Traders

Team Lynx 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.7K

Combined PnL

$-10.9K

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 8¢

-87% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam Lynx at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Lynx

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors potn9ki 92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Lynx8%

potn9ki92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Lynx2 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares35,258

Combined PnL$-15.0K

potn9ki6 traders

Total Value$18.9K

Total Shares40,880

Combined PnL+$4.1K

Team Lynx — 25%potn9ki — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Team Lynxavg 64¢	$22.5K	$7.6K	$-14.9K	59% 1040-730 (1770)
Medo3D	potn9kiavg 34.4¢	$4.7K	$5.6K	+$845.66	41% 201-293 (494)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	potn9kiavg 36¢	$4.3K	$4.8K	+$535.51	45% 86-107 (193)
Skritopoolniy	potn9kiavg 34¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$535.19	46% 682-801 (1483)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Team Lynxavg 56.2¢	$7.0K	$3.2K	$-3.8K	48% 896-957 (1853)
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 60¢	$1.6K	$2.5K	+$865.71
└ Team Lynx leg	Team Lynxavg 56.2¢	$5.4K	$718.08	$-4.7K
UN UNIVERSEMVP	potn9kiavg 58¢	$3.5K	$2.8K	+$1.7K	64% 134-74 (208)
QW qwerqr1251251	potn9kiavg 56¢	$1,000	$1.5K	+$526.78	71% 343-142 (485)
Tolkonevminus2	potn9kiavg 49.9¢	$1.0K	$938.37	-$67.91	61% 132-83 (215)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Team Lynxavg 50.3¢	$46.27	$7.37	-$38.91	48% 40324-43279 (83603)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Team Lynx

Invested

$22,495.6

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-14.9K

Record

59%

1040-730 (1770)

Medo3D

potn9ki

Invested

$4,727.1

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$845.66

Record

41%

201-293 (494)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

potn9ki

Invested

$4,267.62

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$535.51

Record

45%

86-107 (193)

Skritopoolniy

potn9ki

Invested

$2,792.52

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$535.19

Record

46%

682-801 (1483)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Team Lynx

Invested

$6,977.59

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

48%

896-957 (1853)

Both legs:

potn9ki$1,598.2360¢+$865.71

Team Lynx$5,379.3556.2¢$-4.7K

UNIVERSEMVP

potn9ki

Invested

$3,461.45

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

64%

134-74 (208)

qwerqr1251251

potn9ki

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$526.78

Record

71%

343-142 (485)

Tolkonevminus2

potn9ki

Invested

$1,006.28

Value

$938.37

PnL

-$67.91

Record

61%

132-83 (215)

lryyyCTR<$100

Team Lynx

Invested

$46.27

Value

$7.37

PnL

-$38.91

Record

48%

40324-43279 (83603)

Research grade

AvoidTeam Lynx at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Lynx

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors potn9ki 92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Lynx wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.