Dota 2: Team Lynx vs potn9ki - Game 1 Winner

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Team Lynx (27%) · Team Lynx at 100¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 9

Team Lynx>99¢potn9ki<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Lynx

Consensus Traders

Team Lynx 27%

Total Value

$45.0K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 100¢

+59% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Lynx at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Lynx

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Lynx100%

potn9ki0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Lynx3 traders

Total Value$43.3K

Total Shares43,298

Combined PnL+$15.6K

potn9ki8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares40,348

Combined PnL$-13.5K

Team Lynx — 27%potn9ki — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Team Lynx. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrpotn9ki 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000potn9ki 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Lynxavg 62.9¢	$27.0K	$42.6K	+$15.6K	59% 1040-730 (1770)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	potn9kiavg 46.2¢	$3.9K	$1.4K	$-2.4K	55% 851-707 (1558)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Team Lynxavg 62.7¢	$602.87	$591.41	-$11.46	54% 1348-1159 (2507)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	potn9kiavg 20¢	$190.38	$161.83	-$28.56	45% 86-107 (193)
LR lryyy<$100	Team Lynxavg 69.2¢	$75.36	$92.98	+$17.62	48% 40324-43279 (83603)
maytopmayCTR	potn9kiavg 47.1¢	$176.66	$63.71	-$112.94	59% 337-230 (567)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	potn9kiavg 43.2¢	$111.43	$43.83	-$67.59	51% 710-674 (1384)
Medo3DCTR	potn9kiavg 38.7¢	$5.1K	$6.54	$-5.0K	41% 201-293 (494)
SkritopoolniyCTR	potn9kiavg 29.7¢	$3.3K	$5.6	$-3.3K	46% 682-801 (1483)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	potn9kiavg 41.6¢	$2.5K	$2.97	$-2.5K	48% 896-957 (1853)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 16.3¢	$31.75	$0.1	-$31.65	50% 24138-24257 (48395)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Lynx

Invested

$27,000.28

Value

$42.6K

PnL

+$15.6K

Record

59%

1040-730 (1770)

Sisyphus-CTR

potn9ki

Invested

$3,851.57

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

55%

851-707 (1558)

TommyLeePeeca

Team Lynx

Invested

$602.87

Value

$591.41

PnL

-$11.46

Record

54%

1348-1159 (2507)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

potn9ki

Invested

$190.38

Value

$161.83

PnL

-$28.56

Record

45%

86-107 (193)

lryyy<$100

Team Lynx

Invested

$75.36

Value

$92.98

PnL

+$17.62

Record

48%

40324-43279 (83603)

maytopmayCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$176.66

Value

$63.71

PnL

-$112.94

Record

59%

337-230 (567)

PourpelNourpelCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$111.43

Value

$43.83

PnL

-$67.59

Record

51%

710-674 (1384)

Medo3DCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$5,056.11

Value

$6.54

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

41%

201-293 (494)

SkritopoolniyCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$3,327.55

Value

$5.6

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

46%

682-801 (1483)

RandomVibecoderCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$2,470.89

Value

$2.97

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

48%

896-957 (1853)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$31.75

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$31.65

Record

50%

24138-24257 (48395)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Lynx at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Lynx

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Team Lynx. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrpotn9ki 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000potn9ki 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Lynx wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.