Dota 2: Team Lynx vs potn9ki (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group B

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Team Lynx (42%) · Team Lynx at 100¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 9

Team Lynx>99¢potn9ki<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Lynx

Consensus Traders

Team Lynx 42%

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 100¢

+40% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Lynx at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Lynx

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Lynx100%

potn9ki0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Lynx5 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares15,979

Combined PnL+$4.4K

potn9ki7 traders

Total Value$23.5

Total Shares2,864

Combined PnL-$721.63

Team Lynx — 42%potn9ki — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Lynxavg 68.2¢	$9.2K	$13.5K	+$4.3K	59% 1041-732 (1773)
PV pvc975	Team Lynxavg 99.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.52	98% 20566-403 (20969)
OM omnibus-076daa	Team Lynxavg 88.8¢	$668.99	$752.83	+$83.84	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Team Lynxavg 76.6¢	$556.88	$558.42	+$1.55	54% 1348-1159 (2507)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Team Lynxavg 61.4¢	$25	$35	+$10	52% 6205-5726 (11931)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	potn9kiavg 8¢	$91	$11.38	+$4.1	47% 6400-7112 (13512)
SkritopoolniyCTR	potn9kiavg 34¢	$755.69	$10	-$745.69	46% 683-804 (1487)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	potn9kiavg 15¢	$92.25	$1.87	+$71.28	53% 14841-13046 (27887)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 6.8¢	$20.74	$0.15	-$20.59	47% 8799-9989 (18788)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 17.5¢	$14.44	$0.04	-$14.4	48% 40329-43288 (83617)
Medo3DCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 34.1¢	$2.44	$0.03	-$2.4	41% 203-295 (498)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 31¢	$13.95	$0.02	-$13.93	48% 896-957 (1853)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Lynx

Invested

$9,249.53

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

59%

1041-732 (1773)

pvc975

Team Lynx

Invested

$1,059.47

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.52

Record

98%

20566-403 (20969)

omnibus-076daa

Team Lynx

Invested

$668.99

Value

$752.83

PnL

+$83.84

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

TommyLeePeeca

Team Lynx

Invested

$556.88

Value

$558.42

PnL

+$1.55

Record

54%

1348-1159 (2507)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Team Lynx

Invested

$25

Value

$35

PnL

+$10

Record

52%

6205-5726 (11931)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$91

Value

$11.38

PnL

+$4.1

Record

47%

6400-7112 (13512)

SkritopoolniyCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$755.69

Value

$10

PnL

-$745.69

Record

46%

683-804 (1487)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$92.25

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$71.28

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

GaditimaCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$20.74

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$20.59

Record

47%

8799-9989 (18788)

lryyyCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$14.44

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$14.4

Record

48%

40329-43288 (83617)

Medo3DCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$2.44

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.4

Record

41%

203-295 (498)

RandomVibecoderCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$13.95

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$13.93

Record

48%

896-957 (1853)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Lynx at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Lynx

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Lynx wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.