Dota 2: Team Liquid vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - 1win Essence Group C

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (63%) · Team Liquid at 87¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 13

Team Liquid87¢LGD Gaming13¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

$22.58

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 86.5¢

+24% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

12 of 19 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid87%

LGD Gaming14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid12 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares11,854

Combined PnL+$1.7K

LGD Gaming7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares10,619

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Team Liquid — 63%LGD Gaming — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Team Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLGD Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTeam Liquid 67% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Team Liquid 59% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
one8tyfive	Team Liquidavg 70.8¢	$6.2K	$7.5K	+$1.3K	— 10-5 (15)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	LGD Gamingavg 34¢	$3.2K	$1.7K	$-1.6K	9% 21-214 (235)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Team Liquidavg 66.3¢	$544	$701.58	+$157.58	22% 266-965 (1231)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	LGD Gamingavg 44.5¢	$765.28	$601.41	-$43.61	53% 631-566 (1197)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 58¢	$327.3	$465.79	+$165.76
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 44.5¢	$345	$135.63	-$209.38
forsenxd	Team Liquidavg 64¢	$337.1	$434.55	+$97.44	49% 371-392 (763)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 75¢	$412.12	$413.52	+$1.4	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 75¢	$256.19	$281.81	+$25.62
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 20.7¢	$155.93	$131.71	-$24.22
BI biying88888	Team Liquidavg 64¢	$343.68	$408.12	+$64.44	43% 190-253 (443)
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	LGD Gamingavg 21.1¢	$517.48	$391.97	-$125.52	57% 70-53 (123)
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 21.1¢	$450.19	$309.39	-$140.81
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 69.7¢	$67.29	$82.58	+$15.29
VO Volodyabandit	Team Liquidavg 83.4¢	$328.26	$336.57	+$8.31	70% 26-11 (37)
SU suntori	Team Liquidavg 66.5¢	$188.28	$180.08	+$29.38	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
AM ameisgoat11CTR	LGD Gamingavg 24.2¢	$177.46	$106.45	-$71.02	40% 584-893 (1477)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Team Liquidavg 50¢	$600	$103.53	+$16.22	75% 112-37 (149)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Team Liquidavg 66¢	$86.5	$99.61	+$13.11	61% 1003-631 (1634)
0xheavy888<$100	Team Liquidavg 76¢	$84.63	$91.92	+$7.29	53% 388-339 (727)
PU purplegatto<$100	Team Liquidavg 66¢	$66	$85.5	+$19.5	68% 2627-1220 (3847)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Team Liquidavg 75.8¢	$199.01	$76.6	-$2.3	18% 47-216 (263)
vtcchampion52CTR<$100	LGD Gamingavg 26¢	$72.07	$40.19	-$31.88	48% 862-923 (1785)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	LGD Gamingavg 33.9¢	$21.22	$14.39	-$6.83	44% 391-495 (886)
poshposh<$100	Team Liquidavg 73¢	$13.36	$13.98	+$0.62	46% 781-902 (1683)
SC Scrip-scripCTR<$100	LGD Gamingavg 31¢	$25.64	$11.99	-$13.65	— 3-12 (15)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	LGD Gamingavg 22¢	$2.53	$2.01	-$0.52	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	LGD Gamingavg 22¢	$1.1	$0.88	-$0.23	49% 1668-1706 (3374)

one8tyfive

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,247.13

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

—

10-5 (15)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$3,211.49

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

21-214 (235)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Team Liquid

Invested

$544

Value

$701.58

PnL

+$157.58

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

NotJumpARB<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$765.28

Value

$601.41

PnL

-$43.61

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$327.358¢+$165.76

LGD Gaming$34544.5¢-$209.38

forsenxd

Team Liquid

Invested

$337.1

Value

$434.55

PnL

+$97.44

Record

49%

371-392 (763)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$412.12

Value

$413.52

PnL

+$1.4

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$256.1975¢+$25.62

LGD Gaming$155.9320.7¢-$24.22

biying88888

Team Liquid

Invested

$343.68

Value

$408.12

PnL

+$64.44

Record

43%

190-253 (443)

yishiwuchengARB<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$517.48

Value

$391.97

PnL

-$125.52

Record

57%

70-53 (123)

Both legs:

LGD Gaming$450.1921.1¢-$140.81

Team Liquid$67.2969.7¢+$15.29

Volodyabandit

Team Liquid

Invested

$328.26

Value

$336.57

PnL

+$8.31

Record

70%

26-11 (37)

suntori

Team Liquid

Invested

$188.28

Value

$180.08

PnL

+$29.38

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

ameisgoat11CTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$177.46

Value

$106.45

PnL

-$71.02

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Team Liquid

Invested

$600

Value

$103.53

PnL

+$16.22

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

darkumbreon88<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$86.5

Value

$99.61

PnL

+$13.11

Record

61%

1003-631 (1634)

0xheavy888<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$84.63

Value

$91.92

PnL

+$7.29

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

purplegatto<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$66

Value

$85.5

PnL

+$19.5

Record

68%

2627-1220 (3847)

TommyLeePeeca

Team Liquid

Invested

$199.01

Value

$76.6

PnL

-$2.3

Record

18%

47-216 (263)

vtcchampion52CTR<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$72.07

Value

$40.19

PnL

-$31.88

Record

48%

862-923 (1785)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$21.22

Value

$14.39

PnL

-$6.83

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

poshposh<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$13.36

Value

$13.98

PnL

+$0.62

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

Scrip-scripCTR<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$25.64

Value

$11.99

PnL

-$13.65

Record

—

3-12 (15)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2.53

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.23

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

12 of 19 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Team Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLGD Gaming 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTeam Liquid 67% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Team Liquid 59% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.