Dota 2: Team Liquid vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner

19 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (51%) · Team Liquid at 52¢ · $141K held · ends Nov 14

Team Liquid52¢LEGION48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 51%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$140.8K

Combined PnL

$-13.5K

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 52¢

-28% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

19 of 37 top traders (51%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid52%

LEGION48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION18 traders

Total Value$43.9K

Total Shares108,422

Combined PnL+$10.6K

Team Liquid19 traders

Total Value$60.9K

Total Shares116,306

Combined PnL$-24.1K

LEGION — 49%Team Liquid — 51%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Team Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLEGION 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000LEGION 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	LEGIONavg 37.9¢	$15.9K	$20.1K	+$4.2K	47% 471-537 (1008)
Neimuking	Team Liquidavg 87.4¢	$22.6K	$13.6K	$-9.0K	34% 12-23 (35)
GE GeorgeRe	Team Liquidavg 66.7¢	$14.8K	$11.5K	$-3.3K	53% 717-647 (1364)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 52.4¢	$9.6K	$11.3K	+$2.0K	48% 536-585 (1121)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 52.4¢	$8.7K	$8.7K	+$8.99
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 15.3¢	$833.92	$2.6K	+$2.0K
SkritopoolniyARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 47.8¢	$6.3K	$7.6K	+$2.8K	10% 41-388 (429)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 47.8¢	$5.4K	$5.7K	+$304.87
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 13¢	$509.89	$1.9K	+$2.5K
relativesignificanceCTR	LEGIONavg 23.2¢	$7.2K	$7.0K	-$225.93	55% 160-133 (293)
YA yadens	Team Liquidavg 67.7¢	$9.0K	$6.9K	$-2.1K	28% 32-83 (115)
GX gxxyy	Team Liquidavg 88.3¢	$10.6K	$6.1K	$-4.5K	69% 507-227 (734)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 78¢	$6.1K	$5.2K	+$1.3K	78% 21-6 (27)
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 26.9¢	$2.0K	$3.8K	+$1.9K
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 78¢	$2.3K	$1.5K	-$593.66
Sunshine.Smile	Team Liquidavg 47.8¢	$4.4K	$4.6K	+$243.74	— 7-3 (10)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	LEGIONavg 43.9¢	$5.3K	$4.5K	+$423.04	46% 67-78 (145)
minjiARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 64¢	$4.4K	$3.6K	-$806.21	57% 24-18 (42)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 64¢	$3.7K	$2.9K	-$806.21
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 50¢	$750	$750	+$0
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	Team Liquidavg 43.9¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$29.15	15% 15-82 (97)
0xheavy888	Team Liquidavg 58.7¢	$3.8K	$3.3K	-$476.59	54% 496-419 (915)
cat3xcat3xCTR	LEGIONavg 14.9¢	$3.6K	$3.2K	+$4.6K	4% 8-182 (190)
PI pipipi150	Team Liquidavg 90.6¢	$4.9K	$2.7K	$-2.2K	67% 70-34 (104)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR	LEGIONavg 21.7¢	$1.4K	$2.6K	+$1.3K	19% 32-140 (172)
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 57¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$202.44	59% 24-17 (41)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 57¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$241.1
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 47.6¢	$758.49	$797.15	+$38.66
Up0nlyARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 61.8¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	+$408.76	61% 27-17 (44)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 61.8¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$343.5
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 8.6¢	$128.92	$678.68	+$752.26
QW qwerqr1251251ARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 73.5¢	$3.9K	$2.3K	-$940.7	25% 53-161 (214)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 73.5¢	$2.8K	$1.8K	-$895.36
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 57.7¢	$500	$454.66	-$45.34
GE GEAEWCTR	LEGIONavg 47.9¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$6.1	67% 18-9 (27)
EX Excentrico	Team Liquidavg 76.6¢	$3.0K	$2.0K	-$964.67	8% 11-132 (143)
TA TakeMakeSellCTR	LEGIONavg 43.2¢	$4.4K	$1.5K	+$212.04	89% 59-7 (66)
Vladooos	Team Liquidavg 76.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$35.67	65% 48-26 (74)
Hawk.live	Team Liquidavg 91.4¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	-$919.87	57% 690-518 (1208)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

LEGION

Invested

$15,883.28

Value

$20.1K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

47%

471-537 (1008)

Neimuking

Team Liquid

Invested

$22,594.26

Value

$13.6K

PnL

$-9.0K

Record

34%

12-23 (35)

GeorgeRe

Team Liquid

Invested

$14,768

Value

$11.5K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

53%

717-647 (1364)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$9,604.36

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

48%

536-585 (1121)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$8,682.3152.4¢+$8.99

LEGION$833.9215.3¢+$2.0K

SkritopoolniyARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,255.38

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

10%

41-388 (429)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$5,362.7447.8¢+$304.87

LEGION$509.8913¢+$2.5K

relativesignificanceCTR

LEGION

Invested

$7,206.45

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$225.93

Record

55%

160-133 (293)

yadens

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,956.55

Value

$6.9K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

28%

32-83 (115)

gxxyy

Team Liquid

Invested

$10,601.49

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

69%

507-227 (734)

JabamiYumekosRBQARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,122.49

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

78%

21-6 (27)

Both legs:

LEGION$2,043.226.9¢+$1.9K

Team Liquid$2,266.378¢-$593.66

Sunshine.Smile

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,353.11

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$243.74

Record

—

7-3 (10)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

LEGION

Invested

$5,334.78

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$423.04

Record

46%

67-78 (145)

minjiARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,437.42

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$806.21

Record

57%

24-18 (42)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$3,687.4264¢-$806.21

LEGION$75050¢+$0

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,509.14

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$29.15

Record

15%

15-82 (97)

0xheavy888

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,792.11

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$476.59

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

cat3xcat3xCTR

LEGION

Invested

$3,598.95

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

8-182 (190)

pipipi150

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,930.22

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

67%

70-34 (104)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,351.28

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

19%

32-140 (172)

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,714.62

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$202.44

Record

59%

24-17 (41)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$1,956.1457¢-$241.1

LEGION$758.4947.6¢+$38.66

Up0nlyARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,376.54

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$408.76

Record

61%

27-17 (44)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$1,790.961.8¢-$343.5

LEGION$128.928.6¢+$752.26

qwerqr1251251ARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,948.24

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$940.7

Record

25%

53-161 (214)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$2,781.3473.5¢-$895.36

LEGION$50057.7¢-$45.34

GEAEWCTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,128.83

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$6.1

Record

67%

18-9 (27)

Excentrico

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$964.67

Record

11-132 (143)

TakeMakeSellCTR

LEGION

Invested

$4,438.94

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$212.04

Record

89%

59-7 (66)

Vladooos

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,423.87

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$35.67

Record

65%

48-26 (74)

Hawk.live

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,133.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$919.87

Record

57%

690-518 (1208)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

19 of 37 top traders (51%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Team Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLEGION 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000LEGION 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.