Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner

28 of 44 top Polymarket traders hold LGD Gaming (64%) · LGD Gaming at 100¢ · $140K held · ends Nov 14

LGD Gaming>99¢LEGION<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LGD Gaming

Consensus Traders

LGD Gaming 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$140.2K

Combined PnL

$9.2K

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 28 traders

Research grade

NeutralLGD Gaming at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LGD Gaming

28 of 44 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LGD Gaming100%

LEGION0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LGD Gaming28 traders

Total Value$135.9K

Total Shares139,201

Combined PnL+$17.5K

LEGION16 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares83,264

Combined PnL$-8.3K

LGD Gaming — 64%LEGION — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	LGD Gamingavg 84.5¢	$31.9K	$37.7K	+$5.8K	57% 541-407 (948)
relativesignificance	LGD Gamingavg 74.2¢	$23.4K	$26.8K	+$5.4K	54% 155-130 (285)
SC Scrip-scrip	LGD Gamingavg 91.2¢	$14.3K	$12.8K	$-1.4K	— 4-13 (17)
GE GeorgeRe	LGD Gamingavg 81¢	$9.9K	$12.2K	+$2.3K	53% 714-646 (1360)
Sunshine.Smile	LGD Gamingavg 85.8¢	$8.7K	$10.2K	+$1.4K	— 6-2 (8)
cat3xcat3x	LGD Gamingavg 98.2¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$107.76	4% 7-179 (186)
DO DotaBotReborn	LGD Gamingavg 75.7¢	$3.8K	$5.0K	+$1.2K	67% 48-24 (72)
Tolkonevminus3	LGD Gamingavg 75.1¢	$2.8K	$3.8K	+$932.86	59% 36-25 (61)
TA TakeMakeSell	LGD Gamingavg 92.5¢	$15.1K	$3.4K	+$861.44	89% 55-7 (62)
Medo3D	LGD Gamingavg 85¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$16.13	11% 33-257 (290)
Hawk.live	LGD Gamingavg 86.9¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$320.03	57% 687-517 (1204)
web3Boss	LGD Gamingavg 91.1¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$11.3	63% 19-11 (30)
maytopmay	LGD Gamingavg 87.1¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$116.53	20% 52-206 (258)
PI pipipi150	LGD Gamingavg 85.9¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$76.54	69% 67-30 (97)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	LGD Gamingavg 83.8¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$129.31	83% 19-4 (23)
dodsterbotCTR	LEGIONavg 21.1¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$480.82	45% 510-615 (1125)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	LGD Gamingavg 86.5¢	$1.1K	$983.43	-$146.74	50% 2502-2460 (4962)
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 86.5¢	$642.13	$683.08	+$40.95
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 13¢	$488.04	$300.35	-$187.69
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	LEGIONavg 13.1¢	$764.24	$846.07	+$81.83	5% 14-297 (311)
0X 0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502CTR	LEGIONavg 14.7¢	$1.1K	$799.54	-$7.82	— 6-3 (9)
errormargin	LGD Gamingavg 91.9¢	$651.45	$705.39	+$53.93	7% 13-183 (196)
AU autob2	LGD Gamingavg 84.3¢	$655.1	$612.54	-$42.56	53% 50-44 (94)
VO Volodyabandit	LGD Gamingavg 87.9¢	$390	$443.38	+$53.38	64% 27-15 (42)
LhordGryffin	LGD Gamingavg 99.9¢	$401.58	$400.57	-$1	100% 33-0 (33)
PO PourpelNourpel	LGD Gamingavg 84¢	$304.52	$300.89	-$3.63	54% 68-57 (125)
WE westing.v1CTR	LEGIONavg 30.1¢	$937.49	$249.15	-$688.34	24% 28-90 (118)

Sisyphus-

LGD Gaming

Invested

$31,890.74

Value

$37.7K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

57%

541-407 (948)

relativesignificance

LGD Gaming

Invested

$23,365.42

Value

$26.8K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

54%

155-130 (285)

Scrip-scrip

LGD Gaming

Invested

$14,323.94

Value

$12.8K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

—

4-13 (17)

GeorgeRe

LGD Gaming

Invested

$9,882.67

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

53%

714-646 (1360)

Sunshine.Smile

LGD Gaming

Invested

$8,713.69

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

—

6-2 (8)

cat3xcat3x

LGD Gaming

Invested

$6,000

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$107.76

Record

7-179 (186)

DotaBotReborn

LGD Gaming

Invested

$3,820.69

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

67%

48-24 (72)

Tolkonevminus3

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,825.11

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$932.86

Record

59%

36-25 (61)

TakeMakeSell

LGD Gaming

Invested

$15,112.69

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$861.44

Record

89%

55-7 (62)

Medo3D

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,742.1

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$16.13

Record

11%

33-257 (290)

Hawk.live

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,216.68

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$320.03

Record

57%

687-517 (1204)

web3Boss

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,418.02

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$11.3

Record

63%

19-11 (30)

maytopmay

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,286.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$116.53

Record

20%

52-206 (258)

pipipi150

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,384.94

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$76.54

Record

69%

67-30 (97)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,152.67

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$129.31

Record

83%

19-4 (23)

dodsterbotCTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,895.49

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$480.82

Record

45%

510-615 (1125)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$1,130.17

Value

$983.43

PnL

-$146.74

Record

50%

2502-2460 (4962)

Both legs:

LGD Gaming$642.1386.5¢+$40.95

LEGION$488.0413¢-$187.69

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

LEGION

Invested

$764.24

Value

$846.07

PnL

+$81.83

Record

14-297 (311)

0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502CTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,103.61

Value

$799.54

PnL

-$7.82

Record

—

6-3 (9)

errormargin

LGD Gaming

Invested

$651.45

Value

$705.39

PnL

+$53.93

Record

13-183 (196)

autob2

LGD Gaming

Invested

$655.1

Value

$612.54

PnL

-$42.56

Record

53%

50-44 (94)

Volodyabandit

LGD Gaming

Invested

$390

Value

$443.38

PnL

+$53.38

Record

64%

27-15 (42)

LhordGryffin

LGD Gaming

Invested

$401.58

Value

$400.57

PnL

-$1

Record

100%

33-0 (33)

PourpelNourpel

LGD Gaming

Invested

$304.52

Value

$300.89

PnL

-$3.63

Record

54%

68-57 (125)

westing.v1CTR

LEGION

Invested

$937.49

Value

$249.15

PnL

-$688.34

Record

24%

28-90 (118)

Research grade

NeutralLGD Gaming at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

LGD Gaming

28 of 44 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LGD Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.