Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner

21 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold LGD Gaming (60%) · LGD Gaming at 92¢ · $130K held · ends Nov 14

LGD Gaming92¢LEGION8¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LGD Gaming

Consensus Traders

LGD Gaming 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$129.6K

Combined PnL

$5.2K

Smart Money Entry

75.8¢ → 92¢

+21% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralLGD Gaming at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LGD Gaming

21 of 35 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LGD Gaming92%

LEGION8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LGD Gaming21 traders

Total Value$124.3K

Total Shares129,829

Combined PnL+$21.3K

LEGION14 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares90,573

Combined PnL$-16.1K

LGD Gaming — 60%LEGION — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

54% of non-arb traders are on LGD Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLGD Gaming 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrLEGION 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedLGD Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LGD Gaming 54% · 35

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	LGD Gamingavg 70.7¢	$24.8K	$33.3K	+$8.5K	47% 468-534 (1002)
SI Sisyphus-	LGD Gamingavg 77.5¢	$19.1K	$23.4K	+$4.3K	57% 541-407 (948)
GE GeorgeRe	LGD Gamingavg 69.9¢	$15.9K	$21.6K	+$5.7K	53% 714-646 (1360)
YA yadens	LGD Gamingavg 86.5¢	$8.2K	$9.0K	+$806.08	27% 30-82 (112)
PI pipipi150	LGD Gamingavg 81¢	$5.9K	$6.4K	+$486.76	69% 67-30 (97)
SC Scrip-scrip	LGD Gamingavg 68.9¢	$6.3K	$5.4K	-$856.4	— 4-13 (17)
Medo3DCTR	LEGIONavg 23.9¢	$14.9K	$3.1K	$-11.8K	11% 33-257 (290)
EX Excentrico	LGD Gamingavg 80¢	$5.2K	$3.0K	+$529.08	7% 10-130 (140)
Hawk.live	LGD Gamingavg 79.6¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$286.89	57% 687-517 (1204)
Tolkonevminus3	LGD Gamingavg 89.8¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$145.79	59% 36-25 (61)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	LGD Gamingavg 85.2¢	$4.6K	$2.6K	+$188.35	83% 19-4 (23)
QW qwerqr1251251	LGD Gamingavg 83.9¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	+$288.16	24% 51-160 (211)
Up0nly	LGD Gamingavg 85.5¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$228	61% 23-15 (38)
AU autob2	LGD Gamingavg 71.1¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$100.43	53% 49-44 (93)
XU xuxuntao	LGD Gamingavg 90.6¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$96.57	44% 46-58 (104)
maytopmay	LGD Gamingavg 79.2¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$330.57	20% 52-206 (258)
YI yishiwucheng	LGD Gamingavg 72.3¢	$982.41	$1.2K	+$257.77	58% 82-60 (142)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	LEGIONavg 22.8¢	$1.0K	$726.75	-$301.1	50% 2500-2457 (4957)
NO NotJump	LGD Gamingavg 76.3¢	$1.6K	$700	+$14.69	52% 802-736 (1538)
SU suntori	LGD Gamingavg 79¢	$601.59	$593.17	-$8.42	46% 2546-3015 (5561)
PO PourpelNourpel	LGD Gamingavg 78¢	$306.8	$373.67	+$66.87	55% 68-56 (124)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	LEGIONavg 7.2¢	$476.89	$328.36	-$138.44	46% 63-75 (138)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	LEGIONavg 26.2¢	$1.7K	$322.06	$-1.4K	48% 534-581 (1115)
relativesignificanceCTR	LEGIONavg 26.9¢	$12.7K	$277.14	-$914.42	54% 155-130 (285)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	LGD Gamingavg 78¢	$160	$194.87	+$34.87	34% 252-482 (734)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

LGD Gaming

Invested

$24,800

Value

$33.3K

PnL

+$8.5K

Record

47%

468-534 (1002)

Sisyphus-

LGD Gaming

Invested

$19,052.21

Value

$23.4K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

57%

541-407 (948)

GeorgeRe

LGD Gaming

Invested

$15,936.77

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

53%

714-646 (1360)

yadens

LGD Gaming

Invested

$8,199.99

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$806.08

Record

27%

30-82 (112)

pipipi150

LGD Gaming

Invested

$5,887.23

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$486.76

Record

69%

67-30 (97)

Scrip-scrip

LGD Gaming

Invested

$6,299.4

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$856.4

Record

—

4-13 (17)

Medo3DCTR

LEGION

Invested

$14,861.68

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-11.8K

Record

11%

33-257 (290)

Excentrico

LGD Gaming

Invested

$5,179.42

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$529.08

Record

10-130 (140)

Hawk.live

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,666.2

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$286.89

Record

57%

687-517 (1204)

Tolkonevminus3

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,514.58

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$145.79

Record

59%

36-25 (61)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

LGD Gaming

Invested

$4,618.4

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$188.35

Record

83%

19-4 (23)

qwerqr1251251

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,601.65

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$288.16

Record

24%

51-160 (211)

Up0nly

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,052

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$228

Record

61%

23-15 (38)

autob2

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,256.98

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$100.43

Record

53%

49-44 (93)

xuxuntao

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$96.57

Record

44%

46-58 (104)

maytopmay

LGD Gaming

Invested

$1,656.18

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$330.57

Record

20%

52-206 (258)

yishiwucheng

LGD Gaming

Invested

$982.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$257.77

Record

58%

82-60 (142)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,027.85

Value

$726.75

PnL

-$301.1

Record

50%

2500-2457 (4957)

NotJump

LGD Gaming

Invested

$1,572.61

Value

$700

PnL

+$14.69

Record

52%

802-736 (1538)

suntori

LGD Gaming

Invested

$601.59

Value

$593.17

PnL

-$8.42

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

PourpelNourpel

LGD Gaming

Invested

$306.8

Value

$373.67

PnL

+$66.87

Record

55%

68-56 (124)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

LEGION

Invested

$476.89

Value

$328.36

PnL

-$138.44

Record

46%

63-75 (138)

RandomVibecoderCTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,686.62

Value

$322.06

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

48%

534-581 (1115)

relativesignificanceCTR

LEGION

Invested

$12,721.26

Value

$277.14

PnL

-$914.42

Record

54%

155-130 (285)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

LGD Gaming

Invested

$160

Value

$194.87

PnL

+$34.87

Record

34%

252-482 (734)

Research grade

NeutralLGD Gaming at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

LGD Gaming

21 of 35 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

54% of non-arb traders are on LGD Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLGD Gaming 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrLEGION 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedLGD Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LGD Gaming 54% · 35

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LGD Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.