Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs LEGION (BO3) - 1win Essence Group C

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold LGD Gaming (50%) · LGD Gaming at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

LGD Gaming76¢LEGION24¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LGD Gaming

Consensus Traders

LGD Gaming 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$93.14

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 75.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLGD Gaming at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LGD Gaming

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LGD Gaming76%

LEGION25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LGD Gaming4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,948

Combined PnL+$31.15

LEGION4 traders

Total Value$907.08

Total Shares3,964

Combined PnL-$124.29

LGD Gaming — 50%LEGION — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on LGD Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLEGION 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000LGD Gaming 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	LGD Gamingavg 72.9¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	+$30.34	49% 257-270 (527)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	LEGIONavg 26.7¢	$668.01	$550	-$118.01	59% 42-29 (71)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	LEGIONavg 27¢	$216	$196	-$20	24% 309-1003 (1312)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	LEGIONavg 22¢	$132	$147	+$15	47% 34-39 (73)
poshposhARB<$100	LGD Gamingavg 72¢	$58.12	$61.08	+$2.96	48% 1031-1119 (2150)
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 72¢	$33.12	$33.58	+$0.46
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 20¢	$25	$27.5	+$2.5
OD OddstormCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 24¢	$15.36	$14.08	-$1.28	32% 95-201 (296)
FL Flaznorp<$100	LGD Gamingavg 72.5¢	$11	$11.46	+$0.46	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
FE ferdinand2<$100	LGD Gamingavg 72¢	$7.2	$7.55	+$0.35	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
PA Pan9X<$100	LGD Gamingavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.65	+$0	49% 1449-1486 (2935)

Gaditima

LGD Gaming

Invested

$1,824.27

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$30.34

Record

49%

257-270 (527)

JuiceFarmCTR

LEGION

Invested

$668.01

Value

$550

PnL

-$118.01

Record

59%

42-29 (71)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

LEGION

Invested

$216

Value

$196

PnL

-$20

Record

24%

309-1003 (1312)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

LEGION

Invested

$132

Value

$147

PnL

+$15

Record

47%

34-39 (73)

poshposhARB<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$58.12

Value

$61.08

PnL

+$2.96

Record

48%

1031-1119 (2150)

Both legs:

LGD Gaming$33.1272¢+$0.46

LEGION$2520¢+$2.5

OddstormCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$15.36

Value

$14.08

PnL

-$1.28

Record

32%

95-201 (296)

Flaznorp<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$11

Value

$11.46

PnL

+$0.46

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

ferdinand2<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.55

PnL

+$0.35

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

Pan9X<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

Research grade

NeutralLGD Gaming at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

LGD Gaming

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on LGD Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLEGION 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000LGD Gaming 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LGD Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.