Dota 2: Level Up Academy vs old blood - Game 2 Winner

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold old blood (50%) · old blood at 100¢ · $431 held · ends Nov 1

Level Up Academy<1¢old blood>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

old blood

Consensus Traders

old blood 50%

Total Value

$431.42

Combined PnL

-$88.54

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 100¢

+79% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Neutralold blood at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

old blood

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Level Up Academy0%

old blood100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

old blood3 traders

Total Value$280.79

Total Shares483

Combined PnL+$4.39

Level Up Academy3 traders

Total Value$150.62

Total Shares519

Combined PnL-$92.93

old blood — 50%Level Up Academy — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190	old bloodavg 52.3¢	$142.9	$144.76	+$1.85	61% 302-192 (494)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Level Up Academyavg 61.6¢	$166.49	$135.17	-$31.32	59% 30499-21212 (51711)
BU Bunnycat	old bloodavg 60¢	$127.6	$130.79	+$3.19	67% 88-43 (131)
poshposhCTR<$100	Level Up Academyavg 33.3¢	$10.95	$15.34	+$4.39	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
BE berlinskies<$100	old bloodavg 59¢	$5.9	$5.25	-$0.65	58% 5858-4296 (10154)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Level Up Academyavg 29.9¢	$66.11	$0.11	-$66	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190

old blood

Invested

$142.9

Value

$144.76

PnL

+$1.85

Record

61%

302-192 (494)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Level Up Academy

Invested

$166.49

Value

$135.17

PnL

-$31.32

Record

59%

30499-21212 (51711)

Bunnycat

old blood

Invested

$127.6

Value

$130.79

PnL

+$3.19

Record

67%

88-43 (131)

poshposhCTR<$100

Level Up Academy

Invested

$10.95

Value

$15.34

PnL

+$4.39

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

berlinskies<$100

old blood

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$0.65

Record

58%

5858-4296 (10154)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Level Up Academy

Invested

$66.11

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$66

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

Neutralold blood at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

old blood

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that old blood wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.