Dota 2: Level Up Academy vs old blood (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Group B

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Level Up Academy (33%) · Level Up Academy at 59¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1

Level Up Academy59¢old blood41¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Level Up Academy

Consensus Traders

Level Up Academy 33%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$112.1

Research grade

NeutralLevel Up Academy at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Level Up Academy

1 of 3 top traders (33%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Level Up Academy59%

old blood42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Level Up Academy1 trader

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,593

Combined PnL-$70.23

old blood2 traders

Total Value$85.42

Total Shares215

Combined PnL-$41.87

Level Up Academy — 33%old blood — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoder	Level Up Academyavg 61¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$70.23	49% 810-851 (1661)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190ARB<$100	Level Up Academyavg 71.8¢	$294.06	$269.49	-$24.56	61% 302-192 (494)
└ Level Up Academy leg	Level Up Academyavg 71.8¢	$230	$196.96	-$33.04
└ old blood leg	old bloodavg 34¢	$64.06	$72.53	+$8.48
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	old bloodavg 35.3¢	$177.81	$221.29	+$43.48	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
└ old blood leg	old bloodavg 35.3¢	$140.78	$165.7	+$24.92
└ Level Up Academy leg	Level Up Academyavg 39¢	$37.03	$55.59	+$18.56
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100	old bloodavg 36.3¢	$149.71	$162.12	+$12.41	59% 30499-21212 (51711)
└ old blood leg	old bloodavg 36.3¢	$93.81	$120.06	+$26.25
└ Level Up Academy leg	Level Up Academyavg 71.1¢	$55.9	$42.06	-$13.84
poshposhARB<$100	Level Up Academyavg 52.6¢	$111.51	$120.19	+$8.67	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
└ Level Up Academy leg	Level Up Academyavg 52.6¢	$79.25	$88.14	+$8.88
└ old blood leg	old bloodavg 41.8¢	$32.26	$32.05	-$0.21
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Level Up Academyavg 76¢	$260.07	$70	+$59.83	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
└ Level Up Academy leg	Level Up Academyavg 76¢	$53.2	$41.3	-$11.9
└ old blood leg	old bloodavg 31.1¢	$21.78	$28.7	+$71.73
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	old bloodavg 54.8¢	$59.37	$44.97	-$14.4	58% 5858-4296 (10154)
BU BunnycatCTR<$100	old bloodavg 63.8¢	$67.93	$40.45	-$27.48	67% 88-43 (131)

RandomVibecoder

Level Up Academy

Invested

$3,899.32

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$70.23

Record

49%

810-851 (1661)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190ARB<$100

Level Up Academy

Invested

$294.06

Value

$269.49

PnL

-$24.56

Record

61%

302-192 (494)

Both legs:

Level Up Academy$23071.8¢-$33.04

old blood$64.0634¢+$8.48

topdogbigboiARB<$100

old blood

Invested

$177.81

Value

$221.29

PnL

+$43.48

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Both legs:

old blood$140.7835.3¢+$24.92

Level Up Academy$37.0339¢+$18.56

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100

old blood

Invested

$149.71

Value

$162.12

PnL

+$12.41

Record

59%

30499-21212 (51711)

Both legs:

old blood$93.8136.3¢+$26.25

Level Up Academy$55.971.1¢-$13.84

poshposhARB<$100

Level Up Academy

Invested

$111.51

Value

$120.19

PnL

+$8.67

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

Both legs:

Level Up Academy$79.2552.6¢+$8.88

old blood$32.2641.8¢-$0.21

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Level Up Academy

Invested

$260.07

Value

$70

PnL

+$59.83

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Both legs:

Level Up Academy$53.276¢-$11.9

old blood$21.7831.1¢+$71.73

berlinskiesCTR<$100

old blood

Invested

$59.37

Value

$44.97

PnL

-$14.4

Record

58%

5858-4296 (10154)

BunnycatCTR<$100

old blood

Invested

$67.93

Value

$40.45

PnL

-$27.48

Record

67%

88-43 (131)

Research grade

NeutralLevel Up Academy at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Level Up Academy

1 of 3 top traders (33%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Level Up Academy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.