Dota 2: LenS Team vs iLTW TEAM (BO3) - Media Eleague Playoffs

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold LenS Team (33%) · LenS Team at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11

LenS Team94¢iLTW TEAM6¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LenS Team

Consensus Traders

LenS Team 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$844.12

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 93.7¢

+134% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLenS Team at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LenS Team

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LenS Team94%

iLTW TEAM6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LenS Team2 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,317

Combined PnL+$1.7K

iLTW TEAM4 traders

Total Value$297.31

Total Shares1,524

Combined PnL-$825.94

LenS Team — 33%iLTW TEAM — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on LenS Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLenS Team 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000iLTW TEAM 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoder	LenS Teamavg 45.2¢	$1.0K	$2.2K	+$1.1K	48% 493-540 (1033)
CR Crazyboy77	LenS Teamavg 28¢	$338.08	$873	+$534.93	7% 7-93 (100)
alpheclabs2ARB<$100	iLTW TEAMavg 32.9¢	$520.32	$464.34	-$55.98	45% 114-137 (251)
└ LenS Team leg	LenS Teamavg 47.8¢	$169.58	$300	+$130.42
└ iLTW TEAM leg	iLTW TEAMavg 32.9¢	$350.73	$164.34	-$186.4
CI cigarettesARB<$100	LenS Teamavg 66¢	$180.5	$223.12	+$42.62	53% 5671-5102 (10773)
└ LenS Team leg	LenS Teamavg 66¢	$132	$169.18	+$37.18
└ iLTW TEAM leg	iLTW TEAMavg 13.9¢	$48.5	$53.94	+$5.44
AM ameisgoat11CTR	iLTW TEAMavg 48.9¢	$143.1	$98.41	+$4.92	32% 285-613 (898)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	iLTW TEAMavg 32¢	$50	$80.26	+$30.26	21% 107-407 (514)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	iLTW TEAMavg 73¢	$304.92	$64.37	-$240.55	54% 37-32 (69)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	iLTW TEAMavg 72.7¢	$674.84	$54.28	-$620.56	57% 518-395 (913)

RandomVibecoder

LenS Team

Invested

$1,046.63

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

493-540 (1033)

Crazyboy77

LenS Team

Invested

$338.08

Value

$873

PnL

+$534.93

Record

7-93 (100)

alpheclabs2ARB<$100

iLTW TEAM

Invested

$520.32

Value

$464.34

PnL

-$55.98

Record

45%

114-137 (251)

Both legs:

LenS Team$169.5847.8¢+$130.42

iLTW TEAM$350.7332.9¢-$186.4

cigarettesARB<$100

LenS Team

Invested

$180.5

Value

$223.12

PnL

+$42.62

Record

53%

5671-5102 (10773)

Both legs:

LenS Team$13266¢+$37.18

iLTW TEAM$48.513.9¢+$5.44

ameisgoat11CTR

iLTW TEAM

Invested

$143.1

Value

$98.41

PnL

+$4.92

Record

32%

285-613 (898)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

iLTW TEAM

Invested

$50

Value

$80.26

PnL

+$30.26

Record

21%

107-407 (514)

PourpelNourpelCTR

iLTW TEAM

Invested

$304.92

Value

$64.37

PnL

-$240.55

Record

54%

37-32 (69)

Sisyphus-CTR

iLTW TEAM

Invested

$674.84

Value

$54.28

PnL

-$620.56

Record

57%

518-395 (913)

Research grade

NeutralLenS Team at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

LenS Team

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on LenS Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLenS Team 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000iLTW TEAM 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LenS Team wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.