Dota 2: LEGION vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner

24 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (59%) · HULIGANI at 100¢ · $165K held · ends Nov 2

LEGION<1¢HULIGANI>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 59%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$164.9K

Combined PnL

$3.8K

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

24 of 41 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LEGION0%

HULIGANI100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI24 traders

Total Value$144.7K

Total Shares162,901

Combined PnL+$20.3K

LEGION17 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares86,721

Combined PnL$-16.5K

HULIGANI — 59%LEGION — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

43% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHULIGANI 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrLEGION 58% · 24

Diverging

Top 1000LEGION 57% · 30

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	HULIGANIavg 62.5¢	$43.4K	$41.9K	$-1.4K	53% 541-473 (1014)
Sunshine.Smile	HULIGANIavg 64.8¢	$17.8K	$22.7K	+$4.9K	58% 1869-1353 (3222)
LhordGryffin	HULIGANIavg 99.9¢	$20.2K	$20.2K	+$10.52	99% 1141-12 (1153)
SI Sisyphus-	HULIGANIavg 57.2¢	$12.7K	$18.3K	+$5.6K	57% 729-556 (1285)
CyberScore.live	HULIGANIavg 50¢	$10.0K	$16.5K	+$6.5K	46% 410-482 (892)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	LEGIONavg 43.9¢	$20.0K	$8.0K	$-12.0K	58% 911-654 (1565)
maytopmay	HULIGANIavg 60.7¢	$3.9K	$5.2K	+$1.4K	61% 288-185 (473)
Tolkonevminus2	HULIGANIavg 68.3¢	$7.4K	$4.8K	+$1.4K	60% 78-53 (131)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	LEGIONavg 30.2¢	$2.8K	$4.4K	+$1.7K	49% 812-861 (1673)
YA yadens	HULIGANIavg 61.8¢	$4.2K	$3.9K	-$323.92	71% 168-70 (238)
AM AmericaFirst1	HULIGANIavg 59¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$807	62% 2233-1363 (3596)
ST StakesForFun	HULIGANIavg 94.8¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$39.91	64% 391-220 (611)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR	LEGIONavg 29.9¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$42.29	51% 362-353 (715)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	LEGIONavg 38.3¢	$2.1K	$1.1K	$-1.1K	50% 547-542 (1089)
PA panpidaras1CTR	LEGIONavg 50.4¢	$1.3K	$993.17	-$305.08	49% 218-223 (441)
Up0nly	HULIGANIavg 60¢	$815.46	$985.71	+$170.25	68% 990-473 (1463)
WE wewbo	HULIGANIavg 48.3¢	$560	$835.2	+$275.2	52% 152-139 (291)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	LEGIONavg 38.8¢	$5.3K	$827.27	$-1.2K	53% 1237-1083 (2320)
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 38.8¢	$1.1K	$434.05	$-1.1K
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 63.6¢	$294.41	$393.22	-$130.83
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190CTR	LEGIONavg 44.6¢	$2.1K	$813.74	$-1.2K	61% 308-193 (501)
CC ccllar	HULIGANIavg 57¢	$762.61	$793.66	+$31.05	47% 481-542 (1023)
PA para-Vision	HULIGANIavg 51¢	$411.14	$665.07	+$253.94	55% 222-181 (403)
TokennCTR	LEGIONavg 43.8¢	$1.6K	$662.95	-$985.35	48% 660-719 (1379)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	LEGIONavg 46.7¢	$844.81	$569.65	-$275.16	53% 3235-2844 (6079)
BU Bunnycat	HULIGANIavg 83.1¢	$560.06	$555.95	-$4.11	67% 95-47 (142)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	HULIGANIavg 60.8¢	$7.1K	$457.62	+$379.3	62% 589-364 (953)

pnhct

HULIGANI

Invested

$43,355.54

Value

$41.9K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

541-473 (1014)

Sunshine.Smile

HULIGANI

Invested

$17,822.03

Value

$22.7K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

58%

1869-1353 (3222)

LhordGryffin

HULIGANI

Invested

$20,211.78

Value

$20.2K

PnL

+$10.52

Record

99%

1141-12 (1153)

Sisyphus-

HULIGANI

Invested

$12,700.01

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

57%

729-556 (1285)

CyberScore.live

HULIGANI

Invested

$9,997.25

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

46%

410-482 (892)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

LEGION

Invested

$20,000

Value

$8.0K

PnL

$-12.0K

Record

58%

911-654 (1565)

maytopmay

HULIGANI

Invested

$3,861.66

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

61%

288-185 (473)

Tolkonevminus2

HULIGANI

Invested

$7,358.84

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

60%

78-53 (131)

RandomVibecoderCTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,752.61

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

49%

812-861 (1673)

yadens

HULIGANI

Invested

$4,200

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$323.92

Record

71%

168-70 (238)

AmericaFirst1

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,024.44

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$807

Record

62%

2233-1363 (3596)

StakesForFun

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,263.17

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$39.91

Record

64%

391-220 (611)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,973.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$42.29

Record

51%

362-353 (715)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,143.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

547-542 (1089)

panpidaras1CTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,298.25

Value

$993.17

PnL

-$305.08

Record

49%

218-223 (441)

Up0nly

HULIGANI

Invested

$815.46

Value

$985.71

PnL

+$170.25

Record

68%

990-473 (1463)

wewbo

HULIGANI

Invested

$560

Value

$835.2

PnL

+$275.2

Record

52%

152-139 (291)

calculate10ARB<$100

LEGION

Invested

$5,263.33

Value

$827.27

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

1237-1083 (2320)

Both legs:

LEGION$1,122.8438.8¢$-1.1K

HULIGANI$294.4163.6¢-$130.83

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190CTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,075.48

Value

$813.74

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

61%

308-193 (501)

ccllar

HULIGANI

Invested

$762.61

Value

$793.66

PnL

+$31.05

Record

47%

481-542 (1023)

para-Vision

HULIGANI

Invested

$411.14

Value

$665.07

PnL

+$253.94

Record

55%

222-181 (403)

TokennCTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,648.3

Value

$662.95

PnL

-$985.35

Record

48%

660-719 (1379)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

LEGION

Invested

$844.81

Value

$569.65

PnL

-$275.16

Record

53%

3235-2844 (6079)

Bunnycat

HULIGANI

Invested

$560.06

Value

$555.95

PnL

-$4.11

Record

67%

95-47 (142)

BackTestEoCaraio

HULIGANI

Invested

$7,057.34

Value

$457.62

PnL

+$379.3

Record

62%

589-364 (953)

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

24 of 41 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

43% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHULIGANI 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrLEGION 58% · 24

Diverging

Top 1000LEGION 57% · 30

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.