Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold DO KONCA, while the market favors Yellow Submarine (56%). 24 of 46 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: DO KONCA vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner

24 of 46 top Polymarket traders hold DO KONCA (52%) · DO KONCA at 44¢ · $160K held · ends Nov 14

DO KONCA44¢Yellow Submarine56¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

DO KONCA

Consensus Traders

DO KONCA 52%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$160.0K

Combined PnL

$-14.1K

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 44¢

-21% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralDO KONCA at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

DO KONCA

24 of 46 top traders (52%)Underdog side (market favors Yellow Submarine 56%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

DO KONCA44%

Yellow Submarine56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yellow Submarine22 traders

Total Value$54.5K

Total Shares97,205

Combined PnL+$8.6K

DO KONCA24 traders

Total Value$53.4K

Total Shares137,503

Combined PnL$-22.7K

Yellow Submarine — 48%DO KONCA — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592ARB<$100	DO KONCAavg 52.5¢	$20.2K	$20.1K	+$5.1K	47% 469-534 (1003)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 34.4¢	$8.1K	$11.9K	+$5.6K
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 52.5¢	$8.7K	$8.2K	-$495.79
Neimuking	Yellow Submarineavg 35.8¢	$11.8K	$16.6K	+$4.9K	36% 12-21 (33)
GE GeorgeReARB<$100	DO KONCAavg 56.3¢	$17.9K	$14.6K	$-1.6K	53% 715-646 (1361)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 51.2¢	$7.2K	$11.5K	+$4.9K
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 56.3¢	$9.6K	$3.1K	$-6.5K
R2 r2d2v2CTR	DO KONCAavg 66¢	$9.6K	$9.7K	+$72.77	13% 28-185 (213)
CyberScore.liveCTR	DO KONCAavg 42.5¢	$10.0K	$9.3K	-$707.48	52% 34-32 (66)
GE GEAEWCTR	DO KONCAavg 65¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	+$49.99	64% 16-9 (25)
Tolkonevminus3	Yellow Submarineavg 51¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	-$56.82	58% 36-26 (62)
cat3xcat3x	Yellow Submarineavg 52.2¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$224.6	4% 7-180 (187)
minjiARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 73.2¢	$6.3K	$5.2K	-$808.55	57% 21-16 (37)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 73.2¢	$4.0K	$3.0K	-$934.02
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 40.4¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$125.47
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	DO KONCAavg 55.3¢	$5.8K	$5.2K	-$609.28	48% 534-582 (1116)
YA yadensCTR	DO KONCAavg 45¢	$5.3K	$5.1K	-$112.32	27% 31-82 (113)
SC Scrip-scrip	Yellow Submarineavg 58.2¢	$3.5K	$4.5K	+$963.88	— 4-14 (18)
relativesignificanceCTR	DO KONCAavg 63.5¢	$18.6K	$4.4K	$-11.9K	54% 156-132 (288)
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 75.4¢	$5.4K	$3.9K	-$962.79	64% 23-13 (36)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 75.4¢	$3.5K	$2.6K	-$906.19
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 41¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$56.6
0X 0xNuttawut	Yellow Submarineavg 63.4¢	$2.9K	$3.8K	+$893.48	51% 54-52 (106)
Tolkonevminus2	Yellow Submarineavg 70.6¢	$21.3K	$3.5K	+$444.24	45% 63-76 (139)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	DO KONCAavg 46.6¢	$6.8K	$3.3K	+$361.69	36% 58-105 (163)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Yellow Submarineavg 64.4¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$365.79	79% 19-5 (24)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 78.4¢	$4.3K	$3.0K	$-1.1K	54% 492-416 (908)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 78.4¢	$2.7K	$1.8K	-$971.91
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 47.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$78.86
VV VVVSSP	Yellow Submarineavg 35.6¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$615.34	32% 33-70 (103)
TA TakeMakeSellCTR	DO KONCAavg 36.8¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$495.59	89% 56-7 (63)
Up0nlyARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 54.8¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$79.72	63% 25-15 (40)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 54.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$27.47
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 51.7¢	$723.17	$615.99	-$107.18
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 63.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$76.72	50% 2506-2466 (4972)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 63.1¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$250.78
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 39.5¢	$684.72	$858.78	+$174.05
SI SineNooneEICTR	DO KONCAavg 65¢	$6.4K	$1.7K	$-4.7K	55% 636-530 (1166)
AU autob2	Yellow Submarineavg 56.6¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$157.98	55% 53-44 (97)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592ARB<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$20,194.93

Value

$20.1K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

47%

469-534 (1003)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$8,121.5634.4¢+$5.6K

DO KONCA$8,680.8452.5¢-$495.79

Neimuking

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$11,774.77

Value

$16.6K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

36%

12-21 (33)

GeorgeReARB<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$17,893.56

Value

$14.6K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

53%

715-646 (1361)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$7,202.6651.2¢+$4.9K

DO KONCA$9,588.9556.3¢$-6.5K

r2d2v2CTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$9,605.06

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$72.77

Record

13%

28-185 (213)

CyberScore.liveCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$9,999.95

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$707.48

Record

52%

34-32 (66)

GEAEWCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$6,499.31

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$49.99

Record

64%

16-9 (25)

Tolkonevminus3

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$5,426.98

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$56.82

Record

58%

36-26 (62)

cat3xcat3x

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$5,021.89

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$224.6

Record

7-180 (187)

minjiARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$6,289.74

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$808.55

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$3,971.4773.2¢-$934.02

DO KONCA$1,989.4840.4¢+$125.47

RandomVibecoderCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$5,788.47

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$609.28

Record

48%

534-582 (1116)

yadensCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$5,257.31

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$112.32

Record

27%

31-82 (113)

Scrip-scrip

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$3,532.38

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$963.88

Record

—

4-14 (18)

relativesignificanceCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$18,582.34

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-11.9K

Record

54%

156-132 (288)

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$5,364.43

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$962.79

Record

64%

23-13 (36)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$3,519.4375.4¢-$906.19

DO KONCA$1,164.441¢-$56.6

0xNuttawut

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,889.96

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$893.48

Record

51%

54-52 (106)

Tolkonevminus2

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$21,292.91

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$444.24

Record

45%

63-76 (139)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$6,781.38

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$361.69

Record

36%

58-105 (163)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,979.18

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$365.79

Record

79%

19-5 (24)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$4,262.09

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

492-416 (908)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$2,730.2778.4¢-$971.91

DO KONCA$1,185.0247.6¢-$78.86

VVVSSP

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,467.75

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$615.34

Record

32%

33-70 (103)

TakeMakeSellCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$1,440.34

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$495.59

Record

89%

56-7 (63)

Up0nlyARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,971.58

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$79.72

Record

63%

25-15 (40)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$1,248.4154.8¢+$27.47

DO KONCA$723.1751.7¢-$107.18

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,937.73

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$76.72

Record

50%

2506-2466 (4972)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$1,25363.1¢-$250.78

DO KONCA$684.7239.5¢+$174.05

SineNooneEICTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$6,371.15

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

55%

636-530 (1166)

autob2

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,584.57

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$157.98

Record

55%

53-44 (97)

Research grade

NeutralDO KONCA at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

DO KONCA

24 of 46 top traders (52%)Underdog side (market favors Yellow Submarine 56%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that DO KONCA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.