Game Handicap: KONCA (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yellow Submarine (67%) · Yellow Submarine at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

DO KONCA<1¢Yellow Submarine>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yellow Submarine

Consensus Traders

Yellow Submarine 67%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$131.16

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYellow Submarine at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yellow Submarine

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

DO KONCA0%

Yellow Submarine100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yellow Submarine6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,944

Combined PnL-$134.59

DO KONCA3 traders

Total Value$83.48

Total Shares204

Combined PnL+$3.43

Yellow Submarine — 67%DO KONCA — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+37 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yellow Submarine. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on DO KONCA) and the top 1000 (6 on Yellow Submarine) disagree here.

ctrYellow Submarine 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDO KONCA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yellow Submarine 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PI pipipi150	Yellow Submarineavg 99¢	$694.17	$697.67	+$3.51	69% 68-30 (98)
JU JuiceFarm	Yellow Submarineavg 62¢	$619.99	$469.99	-$150	59% 43-30 (73)
PV pvc975<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.95	+$0.05	99% 331-3 (334)
forsenxd<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 52¢	$38.15	$42.55	+$4.4	49% 373-396 (769)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	DO KONCAavg 39¢	$80.82	$41	+$3.07	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
LI liriksCTR<$100	DO KONCAavg 41¢	$38.79	$38.79	-$0	70% 26-11 (37)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 52.1¢	$32.05	$36.02	+$3.98	41% 688-1006 (1694)
PA panpidaras1<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 45¢	$11.18	$14.66	+$3.48	13% 44-290 (334)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	DO KONCAavg 37¢	$3.33	$3.69	+$0.36	35% 104-192 (296)

pipipi150

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$694.17

Value

$697.67

PnL

+$3.51

Record

69%

68-30 (98)

JuiceFarm

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$619.99

Value

$469.99

PnL

-$150

Record

59%

43-30 (73)

pvc975<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

331-3 (334)

forsenxd<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$38.15

Value

$42.55

PnL

+$4.4

Record

49%

373-396 (769)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$80.82

Value

$41

PnL

+$3.07

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

liriksCTR<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$38.79

Value

$38.79

PnL

-$0

Record

70%

26-11 (37)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$32.05

Value

$36.02

PnL

+$3.98

Record

41%

688-1006 (1694)

panpidaras1<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$11.18

Value

$14.66

PnL

+$3.48

Record

13%

44-290 (334)

biying99999CTR<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$0.36

Record

35%

104-192 (296)

Research grade

NeutralYellow Submarine at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Yellow Submarine

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+37 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yellow Submarine. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on DO KONCA) and the top 1000 (6 on Yellow Submarine) disagree here.

ctrYellow Submarine 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDO KONCA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yellow Submarine 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yellow Submarine wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.