Dota 2: DO KONCA vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold DO KONCA (69%) · DO KONCA at 52¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 14

DO KONCA52¢Yellow Submarine48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

DO KONCA

Consensus Traders

DO KONCA 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

-$430.87

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 51.5¢

-26% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDO KONCA at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

DO KONCA

11 of 16 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

DO KONCA52%

Yellow Submarine49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

DO KONCA11 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares8,423

Combined PnL-$715.17

Yellow Submarine5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares8,045

Combined PnL+$284.3

DO KONCA — 69%Yellow Submarine — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on DO KONCA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDO KONCA 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDO KONCA 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000DO KONCA 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	DO KONCAavg 61.6¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$293.12	41% 688-1005 (1693)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 28¢	$506.06	$876.88	+$390.83
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 61.6¢	$595.79	$498.07	-$97.71
GA Gaditima	DO KONCAavg 71.7¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$210.86	48% 269-288 (557)
0X 0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 30¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$21.22	— 6-3 (9)
minjiARB<$100	DO KONCAavg 70.6¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$198.3	57% 21-16 (37)
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 70.6¢	$1.0K	$735.23	-$281.75
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 34.3¢	$201.81	$285.26	+$83.45
DamwonChampions2026	DO KONCAavg 71.9¢	$1.3K	$903.32	-$357.52	64% 23-13 (36)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 29.4¢	$500	$824.05	+$324.05	47% 468-534 (1002)
NO NotJump	DO KONCAavg 59.8¢	$786	$780	-$6	52% 810-741 (1551)
0xheavy888	DO KONCAavg 70¢	$1.1K	$772.5	-$277.5	54% 491-416 (907)
PI pipipi150	DO KONCAavg 66¢	$637.05	$656.2	+$19.15	69% 67-30 (97)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 33¢	$659.98	$599.98	-$60	59% 43-30 (73)
LI Liquidifier	DO KONCAavg 71.1¢	$551.9	$399.99	-$151.92	21% 27-102 (129)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	DO KONCAavg 76.6¢	$522.52	$372.18	-$150.34	50% 2504-2463 (4967)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	DO KONCAavg 53.3¢	$1.1K	$115.17	+$47.28	20% 56-224 (280)
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 53.3¢	$71.42	$70.33	-$244.35
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 34.8¢	$32.8	$44.83	+$291.63
forsenxd	DO KONCAavg 68¢	$102	$105	+$3	49% 373-396 (769)
BI biying99999<$100	DO KONCAavg 66¢	$83.08	$85.6	+$2.52	35% 104-192 (296)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	DO KONCAavg 77.8¢	$46.65	$49.8	+$3.15	44% 361-461 (822)
PA panpidaras1<$100	DO KONCAavg 70¢	$40	$29.43	-$10.57	13% 44-289 (333)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 31¢	$30.17	$29.19	-$0.97	61% 1039-655 (1694)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.5	+$0	50% 1583-1605 (3188)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$1,129.84

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$293.12

Record

41%

688-1005 (1693)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$506.0628¢+$390.83

DO KONCA$595.7961.6¢-$97.71

Gaditima

DO KONCA

Invested

$1,096.45

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$210.86

Record

48%

269-288 (557)

0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,273.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$21.22

Record

—

6-3 (9)

minjiARB<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$1,322.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$198.3

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

Both legs:

DO KONCA$1,008.0270.6¢-$281.75

Yellow Submarine$201.8134.3¢+$83.45

DamwonChampions2026

DO KONCA

Invested

$1,260.84

Value

$903.32

PnL

-$357.52

Record

64%

23-13 (36)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$500

Value

$824.05

PnL

+$324.05

Record

47%

468-534 (1002)

NotJump

DO KONCA

Invested

$786

Value

$780

PnL

-$6

Record

52%

810-741 (1551)

0xheavy888

DO KONCA

Invested

$1,050

Value

$772.5

PnL

-$277.5

Record

54%

491-416 (907)

pipipi150

DO KONCA

Invested

$637.05

Value

$656.2

PnL

+$19.15

Record

69%

67-30 (97)

JuiceFarmCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$659.98

Value

$599.98

PnL

-$60

Record

59%

43-30 (73)

Liquidifier

DO KONCA

Invested

$551.9

Value

$399.99

PnL

-$151.92

Record

21%

27-102 (129)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

DO KONCA

Invested

$522.52

Value

$372.18

PnL

-$150.34

Record

50%

2504-2463 (4967)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$1,077.74

Value

$115.17

PnL

+$47.28

Record

20%

56-224 (280)

Both legs:

DO KONCA$71.4253.3¢-$244.35

Yellow Submarine$32.834.8¢+$291.63

forsenxd

DO KONCA

Invested

$102

Value

$105

PnL

+$3

Record

49%

373-396 (769)

biying99999<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$83.08

Value

$85.6

PnL

+$2.52

Record

35%

104-192 (296)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$46.65

Value

$49.8

PnL

+$3.15

Record

44%

361-461 (822)

panpidaras1<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$40

Value

$29.43

PnL

-$10.57

Record

13%

44-289 (333)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$30.17

Value

$29.19

PnL

-$0.97

Record

61%

1039-655 (1694)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1583-1605 (3188)

Research grade

NeutralDO KONCA at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

DO KONCA

11 of 16 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on DO KONCA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDO KONCA 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDO KONCA 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000DO KONCA 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that DO KONCA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.