Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Xipto Esports - Game 2 Winner

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (75%) · Xipto Esports at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 11

Inner Circle<1¢Xipto Esports>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 75%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 100¢

+53% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Inner Circle0%

Xipto Esports100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports6 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares7,326

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Inner Circle2 traders

Total Value$4.55

Total Shares51

Combined PnL-$9.7

Xipto Esports — 75%Inner Circle — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrXipto Esports 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Xipto Esports 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Xipto Esportsavg 60.2¢	$2.8K	$4.6K	+$1.8K	46% 430-500 (930)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Xipto Esportsavg 63.6¢	$751.74	$800.99	+$49.24	56% 3843-3017 (6860)
handandfacetatto	Xipto Esportsavg 99.9¢	$777.81	$778.2	+$0.39	100% 64-0 (64)
Medo3D	Xipto Esportsavg 67.8¢	$418.58	$616.77	+$198.19	7% 16-224 (240)
RA RandomVibecoder	Xipto Esportsavg 59.4¢	$389.38	$474.36	+$132.38	48% 493-540 (1033)
SE sentrio<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 54¢	$20.19	$27.58	+$7.39	37% 341-573 (914)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 24.3¢	$9.24	$3.42	-$5.82	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 40¢	$5	$1.13	-$3.88	41% 3122-4487 (7609)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,781.15

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

46%

430-500 (930)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Xipto Esports

Invested

$751.74

Value

$800.99

PnL

+$49.24

Record

56%

3843-3017 (6860)

handandfacetatto

Xipto Esports

Invested

$777.81

Value

$778.2

PnL

+$0.39

Record

100%

64-0 (64)

Medo3D

Xipto Esports

Invested

$418.58

Value

$616.77

PnL

+$198.19

Record

16-224 (240)

RandomVibecoder

Xipto Esports

Invested

$389.38

Value

$474.36

PnL

+$132.38

Record

48%

493-540 (1033)

sentrio<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$20.19

Value

$27.58

PnL

+$7.39

Record

37%

341-573 (914)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$9.24

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$5.82

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$3.88

Record

41%

3122-4487 (7609)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrXipto Esports 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Xipto Esports 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.