Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Lynx, while the market favors InterActive Philippines (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Team Lynx (80%) · Team Lynx at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

InterActive Philippines>99¢Team Lynx<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team Lynx

Consensus Traders

Team Lynx 80%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Entry

41¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam Lynx at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Lynx

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors InterActive Philippines 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

InterActive Philippines100%

Team Lynx0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

InterActive Philippines2 traders

Total Value$933.35

Total Shares934

Combined PnL+$0.2

Team Lynx8 traders

Total Value$537.25

Total Shares8,738

Combined PnL$-3.1K

InterActive Philippines — 20%Team Lynx — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	InterActive Philippinesavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	54% 455-382 (837)
XT xtxpleasecallme	InterActive Philippinesavg 99.9¢	$408.14	$408.35	+$0.2	40% 3295-4922 (8217)
R2 r2d2v2CTR	Team Lynxavg 62¢	$249.99	$241.93	-$8.06	13% 26-181 (207)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Team Lynxavg 31.2¢	$141.55	$129.69	-$11.87	56% 3902-3070 (6972)
PO pol2131CTR	Team Lynxavg 35.5¢	$141.99	$88	-$54	43% 27-36 (63)
MR MrConsistencyCTR	Team Lynxavg 15.2¢	$447.37	$56.25	-$7.16	34% 13-25 (38)
poshposhCTR<$100	Team Lynxavg 24.6¢	$69.74	$7.07	-$62.66	47% 532-590 (1122)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Team Lynxavg 12¢	$12.01	$6.89	-$5.12	44% 389-495 (884)
AN anyjezzCTR<$100	Team Lynxavg 44¢	$5.28	$4.02	-$1.26	26% 6-17 (23)
MA madar78CTR	Team Lynxavg 43.5¢	$3.0K	$3.4	$-3.0K	42% 36-49 (85)

NotJump

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

xtxpleasecallme

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$408.14

Value

$408.35

PnL

+$0.2

Record

40%

3295-4922 (8217)

r2d2v2CTR

Team Lynx

Invested

$249.99

Value

$241.93

PnL

-$8.06

Record

13%

26-181 (207)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Team Lynx

Invested

$141.55

Value

$129.69

PnL

-$11.87

Record

56%

3902-3070 (6972)

pol2131CTR

Team Lynx

Invested

$141.99

Value

$88

PnL

-$54

Record

43%

27-36 (63)

MrConsistencyCTR

Team Lynx

Invested

$447.37

Value

$56.25

PnL

-$7.16

Record

34%

13-25 (38)

poshposhCTR<$100

Team Lynx

Invested

$69.74

Value

$7.07

PnL

-$62.66

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

lryyyCTR<$100

Team Lynx

Invested

$12.01

Value

$6.89

PnL

-$5.12

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

anyjezzCTR<$100

Team Lynx

Invested

$5.28

Value

$4.02

PnL

-$1.26

Record

26%

6-17 (23)

madar78CTR

Team Lynx

Invested

$2,955.91

Value

$3.4

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

42%

36-49 (85)

Research grade

AvoidTeam Lynx at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Team Lynx

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors InterActive Philippines 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Lynx wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.