Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs

30 of 43 top Polymarket traders hold Yellow Submarine (70%) · Yellow Submarine at 100¢ · $132K held · ended Nov 3

HULIGANI<1¢Yellow Submarine>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yellow Submarine

Consensus Traders

Yellow Submarine 70%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$132.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 100¢

+21% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

NeutralYellow Submarine at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yellow Submarine

30 of 43 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI0%

Yellow Submarine100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yellow Submarine30 traders

Total Value$102.1K

Total Shares117,984

Combined PnL+$3.8K

HULIGANI13 traders

Total Value$23.7K

Total Shares72,337

Combined PnL$-5.9K

Yellow Submarine — 70%HULIGANI — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yellow Submarine. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYellow Submarine 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYellow Submarine 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYellow Submarine 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yellow Submarine 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Yellow Submarineavg 99.9¢	$58.7K	$58.3K	+$45.91	98% 13990-239 (14229)
GO GooGooGaga1	Yellow Submarineavg 83.1¢	$11.8K	$12.8K	+$1.9K	77% 48-14 (62)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	HULIGANIavg 44¢	$10.2K	$10.3K	+$106.75	55% 735-604 (1339)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	HULIGANIavg 40¢	$13.7K	$8.4K	$-5.3K	58% 920-665 (1585)
Tokenn	Yellow Submarineavg 57¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	-$26.25	48% 667-731 (1398)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	Yellow Submarineavg 56.5¢	$4.8K	$6.0K	+$1.1K	50% 549-553 (1102)
1R 1rerrr	Yellow Submarineavg 55¢	$3.7K	$3.4K	+$97.81	50% 1311-1290 (2601)
PI pipipi150	Yellow Submarineavg 64.9¢	$2.7K	$3.4K	+$671.91	65% 1754-936 (2690)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 54.3¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$14.49	52% 8455-7711 (16166)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 44.7¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$498.13
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 54.3¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$512.62
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 62.4¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$270	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 62.4¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$302.5
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 23.8¢	$594.99	$562.49	-$32.5
GE GeorgeRe	Yellow Submarineavg 58.2¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	+$1.7K	54% 1100-937 (2037)
maytopmayCTR	HULIGANIavg 46.1¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$69.32	61% 294-186 (480)
alpheclabs2	Yellow Submarineavg 73.8¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$77.43	47% 1103-1248 (2351)
VI vibing123	Yellow Submarineavg 64¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$23.51	52% 1605-1509 (3114)
one8tyfiveCTR	HULIGANIavg 36¢	$744.19	$1.3K	+$590.97	58% 2131-1516 (3647)
SP spartachio	Yellow Submarineavg 61¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$811.39	48% 711-771 (1482)
38 38791873984189	Yellow Submarineavg 67.2¢	$2.0K	$994.94	-$98.1	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
GX gxxyy	Yellow Submarineavg 80.4¢	$1.0K	$953.38	-$49.04	69% 506-223 (729)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 20.9¢	$1.3K	$700.51	-$623.22	49% 820-868 (1688)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 69.1¢	$337.72	$464.38	+$126.66
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 20.9¢	$986.01	$236.13	-$749.88
BU BunnycatCTR	HULIGANIavg 31.1¢	$590.63	$597.64	+$7	68% 108-51 (159)
poshposhCTR	HULIGANIavg 23.5¢	$784.05	$568.59	-$215.46	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
SL SlickRick123	Yellow Submarineavg 78¢	$546	$542.5	-$3.5	48% 5181-5695 (10876)
LO lonmi2511	Yellow Submarineavg 66.1¢	$947.87	$509.04	-$438.82	54% 1268-1059 (2327)
OtecBednosti	Yellow Submarineavg 57.6¢	$511.93	$502.12	-$9.81	50% 141-141 (282)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yellow Submarineavg 75¢	$462.15	$440.8	-$21.34	50% 20187-20523 (40710)

zxc368

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$58,651.08

Value

$58.3K

PnL

+$45.91

Record

98%

13990-239 (14229)

GooGooGaga1

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$11,778.48

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

77%

48-14 (62)

Sisyphus-CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$10,215.61

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$106.75

Record

55%

735-604 (1339)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$13,678.2

Value

$8.4K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

58%

920-665 (1585)

Tokenn

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$6,433.57

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$26.25

Record

48%

667-731 (1398)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$4,847.84

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

549-553 (1102)

1rerrr

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$3,705.66

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$97.81

Record

50%

1311-1290 (2601)

pipipi150

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,679.26

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$671.91

Record

65%

1754-936 (2690)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$3,393.94

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$14.49

Record

52%

8455-7711 (16166)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$1,452.4244.7¢+$498.13

HULIGANI$1,766.0954.3¢-$512.62

NotJumpARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,842.48

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$270

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$1,247.4962.4¢+$302.5

HULIGANI$594.9923.8¢-$32.5

GeorgeRe

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,435.38

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

54%

1100-937 (2037)

maytopmayCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,053.16

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$69.32

Record

61%

294-186 (480)

alpheclabs2

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,675.78

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$77.43

Record

47%

1103-1248 (2351)

vibing123

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,495.14

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$23.51

Record

52%

1605-1509 (3114)

one8tyfiveCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$744.19

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$590.97

Record

58%

2131-1516 (3647)

spartachio

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,940.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$811.39

Record

48%

711-771 (1482)

38791873984189

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,013.13

Value

$994.94

PnL

-$98.1

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

gxxyy

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,002.42

Value

$953.38

PnL

-$49.04

Record

69%

506-223 (729)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,323.73

Value

$700.51

PnL

-$623.22

Record

49%

820-868 (1688)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$337.7269.1¢+$126.66

HULIGANI$986.0120.9¢-$749.88

BunnycatCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$590.63

Value

$597.64

PnL

+$7

Record

68%

108-51 (159)

poshposhCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$784.05

Value

$568.59

PnL

-$215.46

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

SlickRick123

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$546

Value

$542.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

48%

5181-5695 (10876)

lonmi2511

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$947.87

Value

$509.04

PnL

-$438.82

Record

54%

1268-1059 (2327)

OtecBednosti

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$511.93

Value

$502.12

PnL

-$9.81

Record

50%

141-141 (282)

omnibus-076daa

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$462.15

Value

$440.8

PnL

-$21.34

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

Research grade

NeutralYellow Submarine at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yellow Submarine

30 of 43 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yellow Submarine. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYellow Submarine 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYellow Submarine 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYellow Submarine 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yellow Submarine 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yellow Submarine wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.