Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (71%) · HULIGANI at 93¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 11

HULIGANI93¢Yakult Brothers7¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 71%

Total Value

$18.5K

Combined PnL

$4.2K

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 92.6¢

+29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI93%

Yakult Brothers7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI5 traders

Total Value$18.4K

Total Shares19,664

Combined PnL+$4.3K

Yakult Brothers2 traders

Total Value$53.89

Total Shares605

Combined PnL-$71.76

HULIGANI — 71%Yakult Brothers — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHULIGANI 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	HULIGANIavg 71.3¢	$11.8K	$15.5K	+$3.7K	46% 426-495 (921)
CA calculate10	HULIGANIavg 76.4¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$265.48	22% 26-91 (117)
NO nomoredream	HULIGANIavg 74.1¢	$973.9	$1.2K	+$258.38	24% 23-71 (94)
Medo3D	HULIGANIavg 55¢	$112.25	$187.77	+$75.51	6% 14-216 (230)
38 38791873984189<$100	HULIGANIavg 80.3¢	$64.11	$53.08	-$11.03	48% 1273-1369 (2642)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Yakult Brothersavg 20¢	$116.4	$46.56	-$69.84	8% 17-185 (202)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 22¢	$9.26	$7.33	-$1.92	41% 3115-4481 (7596)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

HULIGANI

Invested

$11,805.46

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

calculate10

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,269.26

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$265.48

Record

22%

26-91 (117)

nomoredream

HULIGANI

Invested

$973.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$258.38

Record

24%

23-71 (94)

Medo3D

HULIGANI

Invested

$112.25

Value

$187.77

PnL

+$75.51

Record

14-216 (230)

38791873984189<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$64.11

Value

$53.08

PnL

-$11.03

Record

48%

1273-1369 (2642)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$116.4

Value

$46.56

PnL

-$69.84

Record

17-185 (202)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$9.26

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$1.92

Record

41%

3115-4481 (7596)

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHULIGANI 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.9%

92.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.