Dota 2: HULIGANI vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (55%) · HULIGANI at 60¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 11

HULIGANI60¢PuckChamp40¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.5K

Combined PnL

-$422.9

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 60¢

-15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

6 of 11 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI60%

PuckChamp40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI6 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares22,697

Combined PnL-$739.06

PuckChamp5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,752

Combined PnL+$316.17

HULIGANI — 55%PuckChamp — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	HULIGANIavg 69.3¢	$10.3K	$10.1K	-$264.51	46% 430-500 (930)
SI Sisyphus-	HULIGANIavg 76.7¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	-$484.84	57% 518-395 (913)
RA RandomVibecoder	HULIGANIavg 66.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$68.59	48% 493-540 (1033)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	PuckChampavg 22.5¢	$783.17	$1.1K	+$329.24	9% 19-186 (205)
A3 a37932699ARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 74¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$94.18	2% 3-181 (184)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 74¢	$733.17	$683.63	-$49.54
└ PuckChamp leg	PuckChampavg 34.5¢	$444.44	$399.79	-$44.65
CA calculate10CTR	PuckChampavg 31.3¢	$628.52	$353.95	-$15.63	22% 28-99 (127)
PO PourpelNourpel	HULIGANIavg 77.7¢	$305.28	$259.4	-$45.88	54% 37-32 (69)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 71.6¢	$264.22	$247.05	-$12.05	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 71.6¢	$182.88	$172.3	-$11.19
└ PuckChamp leg	PuckChampavg 32.9¢	$75.61	$74.75	-$0.86
QW qwerqr1251251	HULIGANIavg 71.8¢	$300	$209.89	-$10.93	17% 29-145 (174)
NO nomoredreamCTR	PuckChampavg 33¢	$199.99	$190.9	-$9.09	27% 27-72 (99)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	PuckChampavg 21.1¢	$85.25	$109.1	+$23.86	53% 1801-1611 (3412)
└ PuckChamp leg	PuckChampavg 21.1¢	$47.42	$76.48	+$29.06
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 76.5¢	$37.82	$32.62	-$5.2
TE testBruno2CTR	PuckChampavg 27.7¢	$423.15	$16.54	+$9.26	37% 22-37 (59)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	HULIGANIavg 75¢	$12.35	$10.85	-$1.5	32% 285-613 (898)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	PuckChampavg 23¢	$5	$7.39	+$2.39	41% 3122-4487 (7609)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

HULIGANI

Invested

$10,318.76

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$264.51

Record

46%

430-500 (930)

Sisyphus-

HULIGANI

Invested

$4,031.56

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$484.84

Record

57%

518-395 (913)

RandomVibecoder

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,220.75

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$68.59

Record

48%

493-540 (1033)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$783.17

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$329.24

Record

19-186 (205)

a37932699ARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,177.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$94.18

Record

3-181 (184)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$733.1774¢-$49.54

PuckChamp$444.4434.5¢-$44.65

calculate10CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$628.52

Value

$353.95

PnL

-$15.63

Record

22%

28-99 (127)

PourpelNourpel

HULIGANI

Invested

$305.28

Value

$259.4

PnL

-$45.88

Record

54%

37-32 (69)

38791873984189ARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$264.22

Value

$247.05

PnL

-$12.05

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$182.8871.6¢-$11.19

PuckChamp$75.6132.9¢-$0.86

qwerqr1251251

HULIGANI

Invested

$300

Value

$209.89

PnL

-$10.93

Record

17%

29-145 (174)

nomoredreamCTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$199.99

Value

$190.9

PnL

-$9.09

Record

27%

27-72 (99)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

$85.25

Value

$109.1

PnL

+$23.86

Record

53%

1801-1611 (3412)

Both legs:

PuckChamp$47.4221.1¢+$29.06

HULIGANI$37.8276.5¢-$5.2

testBruno2CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$423.15

Value

$16.54

PnL

+$9.26

Record

37%

22-37 (59)

ameisgoat11<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$12.35

Value

$10.85

PnL

-$1.5

Record

32%

285-613 (898)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

Value

$7.39

PnL

+$2.39

Record

41%

3122-4487 (7609)

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

6 of 11 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.