Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold PuckChamp, while the market favors HULIGANI (59%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Game Handicap: HULIGANI (-1.5) vs PuckChamp (+1.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold PuckChamp (71%) · PuckChamp at 42¢ · $679 held · ends Nov 11

HULIGANI59¢PuckChamp41¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PuckChamp

Consensus Traders

PuckChamp 71%

Total Value

$678.86

Combined PnL

$126.14

Smart Money Entry

28.5¢ → 41.5¢

+46% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralPuckChamp at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PuckChamp

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors HULIGANI 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI59%

PuckChamp42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PuckChamp5 traders

Total Value$414.49

Total Shares1,011

Combined PnL+$126.71

HULIGANI2 traders

Total Value$264.37

Total Shares454

Combined PnL-$0.57

PuckChamp — 71%HULIGANI — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on PuckChamp. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPuckChamp 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedPuckChamp 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000PuckChamp 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OD OddstormCTR	PuckChampavg 23.8¢	$153.51	$264.78	+$111.27	22% 33-115 (148)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	HULIGANIavg 58¢	$153.43	$154.75	+$1.32	14% 139-827 (966)
VeryLucky888CTR	PuckChampavg 36.4¢	$117.08	$131.88	+$14.8	52% 440-413 (853)
FA FailedMission	HULIGANIavg 59¢	$111.51	$109.62	-$1.89	— 10-6 (16)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	PuckChampavg 41¢	$8.2	$8.2	+$0	36% 113-197 (310)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	PuckChampavg 37¢	$5	$5.54	+$0.54	41% 3108-4463 (7571)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	PuckChampavg 40¢	$4	$4.1	+$0.1	31% 274-610 (884)

OddstormCTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$153.51

Value

$264.78

PnL

+$111.27

Record

22%

33-115 (148)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

HULIGANI

Invested

$153.43

Value

$154.75

PnL

+$1.32

Record

14%

139-827 (966)

VeryLucky888CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$117.08

Value

$131.88

PnL

+$14.8

Record

52%

440-413 (853)

FailedMission

HULIGANI

Invested

$111.51

Value

$109.62

PnL

-$1.89

Record

—

10-6 (16)

biying88888CTR<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

113-197 (310)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

Value

$5.54

PnL

+$0.54

Record

41%

3108-4463 (7571)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

31%

274-610 (884)

Research grade

NeutralPuckChamp at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

PuckChamp

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors HULIGANI 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on PuckChamp. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPuckChamp 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedPuckChamp 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000PuckChamp 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PuckChamp wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.