Dota 2: HULIGANI vs PuckChamp (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (57%) · HULIGANI at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
HULIGANI
7
HULIGANI 57%
$1.9K
$35.69
82.7¢ → 81.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralHULIGANI at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU JuiceFarm | HULIGANIavg 83¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$172.5 | — 12-7 (19) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | HULIGANIavg 81.8¢ | $444.97 | $442.78 | -$2.19 | 41% 3116-4481 (7597) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | PuckChampavg 15.8¢ | $122.72 | $42.69 | -$80.03 | 52% 441-414 (855) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100 | PuckChampavg 16.9¢ | $67.6 | $22 | -$45.6 | 14% 139-833 (972) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | HULIGANIavg 84¢ | $9.35 | $9.73 | +$0.37 | 31% 278-610 (888) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | PuckChampavg 14.9¢ | $14.9 | $5.5 | -$9.4 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
RL RLWG<$100 | HULIGANIavg 82¢ | $4.1 | $4.14 | +$0.04 | 67% 1635-790 (2425) |
Invested
$1,244.98
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$172.5
Record
—
12-7 (19)
Invested
$444.97
Value
$442.78
PnL
-$2.19
Record
41%
3116-4481 (7597)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$122.72
Value
$42.69
PnL
-$80.03
Record
52%
441-414 (855)
Invested
$67.6
Value
$22
PnL
-$45.6
Record
14%
139-833 (972)
Invested
$9.35
Value
$9.73
PnL
+$0.37
Record
31%
278-610 (888)
Invested
$14.9
Value
$5.5
PnL
-$9.4
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$4.14
PnL
+$0.04
Record
67%
1635-790 (2425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.