Dota 2: HULIGANI vs CyberHero (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (50%) · CyberHero at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

HULIGANI22¢CyberHero78¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$254.49

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 78¢

+37% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI22%

CyberHero78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,929

Combined PnL+$273.37

HULIGANI5 traders

Total Value$134.88

Total Shares428

Combined PnL-$18.89

CyberHero — 50%HULIGANI — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCyberHero 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedCyberHero 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000CyberHero 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU JuiceFarm	CyberHeroavg 53.9¢	$755	$994	+$239	58% 69-51 (120)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 50¢	$262.5	$372.75	+$110.25
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 50¢	$262.5	$152.25	-$110.25
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 47¢	$274.05	$213.22	-$60.83	57% 111-83 (194)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 69.3¢	$108.47	$111.12	+$2.64
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 47¢	$165.58	$102.11	-$63.47
AM ameisgoat11	CyberHeroavg 71.1¢	$226.51	$196.78	-$4.51	43% 867-1151 (2018)
BI BillBenter2026	CyberHeroavg 53.6¢	$77.77	$113.12	+$35.35	33% 308-624 (932)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	CyberHeroavg 67.5¢	$86.61	$88.63	+$2.02	56% 4181-3271 (7452)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 28.2¢	$59.3	$60.95	+$1.65	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 45¢	$27.03	$22.98	-$4.05	46% 653-760 (1413)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 29.6¢	$21.03	$20.58	-$0.45	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 45¢	$24.99	$16.1	-$8.89	40% 354-534 (888)
poshposhCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 43.5¢	$21.42	$14.27	-$7.15	49% 1349-1428 (2777)
TH thatsabing0<$100	CyberHeroavg 53.4¢	$4.61	$6.13	+$1.52	63% 280-166 (446)

JuiceFarm

CyberHero

Invested

$755

Value

$994

PnL

+$239

Record

58%

69-51 (120)

NotJumpARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

CyberHero$262.550¢+$110.25

HULIGANI$262.550¢-$110.25

yishiwuchengARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$274.05

Value

$213.22

PnL

-$60.83

Record

57%

111-83 (194)

Both legs:

CyberHero$108.4769.3¢+$2.64

HULIGANI$165.5847¢-$63.47

ameisgoat11

CyberHero

Invested

$226.51

Value

$196.78

PnL

-$4.51

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

BillBenter2026

CyberHero

Invested

$77.77

Value

$113.12

PnL

+$35.35

Record

33%

308-624 (932)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$86.61

Value

$88.63

PnL

+$2.02

Record

56%

4181-3271 (7452)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$59.3

Value

$60.95

PnL

+$1.65

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$27.03

Value

$22.98

PnL

-$4.05

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

38791873984189CTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$21.03

Value

$20.58

PnL

-$0.45

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$24.99

Value

$16.1

PnL

-$8.89

Record

40%

354-534 (888)

poshposhCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$21.42

Value

$14.27

PnL

-$7.15

Record

49%

1349-1428 (2777)

thatsabing0<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$4.61

Value

$6.13

PnL

+$1.52

Record

63%

280-166 (446)

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCyberHero 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedCyberHero 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000CyberHero 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.