Dota 2: HULIGANI vs CyberHero - Game 1 Winner

8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (42%) · CyberHero at 100¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 10

HULIGANI<1¢CyberHero>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.0K

Combined PnL

$8.1K

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 100¢

+79% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

8 of 19 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI0%

CyberHero100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero8 traders

Total Value$45.2K

Total Shares48,587

Combined PnL+$18.9K

HULIGANI11 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares26,659

Combined PnL$-10.8K

CyberHero — 42%HULIGANI — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

45% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on CyberHero) and the top 1000 (20 on HULIGANI) disagree here.

sharpHULIGANI 75% · 4

Diverging

sniperCyberHero 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedCyberHero 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 55% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	CyberHeroavg 48.5¢	$11.7K	$22.0K	+$11.2K	6% 16-269 (285)
GE GeorgeRe	CyberHeroavg 46.4¢	$4.2K	$9.0K	+$4.9K	1% 4-312 (316)
YA yadens	CyberHeroavg 87.7¢	$8.2K	$8.5K	+$680.74	13% 10-70 (80)
SI Sisyphus-	CyberHeroavg 45.5¢	$1.7K	$3.4K	+$1.9K	3% 8-236 (244)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	CyberHeroavg 58¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$132.46	37% 37-62 (99)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	HULIGANIavg 48.5¢	$2.2K	$1.6K	-$535.51	13% 27-174 (201)
QW qwerqr1251251ARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 91.6¢	$850	$809.59	-$84.74	10% 10-94 (104)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 91.6¢	$650	$645.96	+$24.35
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 11¢	$200	$163.64	-$109.09
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	HULIGANIavg 48.7¢	$2.5K	$469.62	$-2.3K	3% 6-200 (206)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	HULIGANIavg 47.2¢	$1.9K	$400.25	$-1.6K	4% 6-133 (139)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	CyberHeroavg 66.3¢	$1.1K	$373.96	+$78.72	11% 5-39 (44)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	HULIGANIavg 19.9¢	$603.99	$273.08	-$330.91	50% 14-14 (28)
CA calculate10CTR	HULIGANIavg 12.5¢	$311.47	$176.13	-$42.4	18% 9-42 (51)
maytopmay	CyberHeroavg 50¢	$92.55	$168.44	+$82.37	5% 8-139 (147)
38 38791873984189<$100	CyberHeroavg 89.4¢	$97.78	$66.18	-$31.6	49% 374-391 (765)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	HULIGANIavg 50.2¢	$5.8K	$43.9	$-5.7K	28% 13-34 (47)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 57.4¢	$25	$13.97	-$11.03	66% 43-22 (65)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 30.5¢	$29.88	$8.82	-$24.49	60% 37-25 (62)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 14.8¢	$5.75	$3.49	-$2.25	30% 104-242 (346)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 57.5¢	$5.75	$0.9	-$4.85	17% 38-183 (221)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	HULIGANIavg 17.5¢	$207.65	$0.59	-$207.06	31% 60-136 (196)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

CyberHero

Invested

$11,700

Value

$22.0K

PnL

+$11.2K

Record

16-269 (285)

GeorgeRe

CyberHero

Invested

$4,245.47

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

4-312 (316)

yadens

CyberHero

Invested

$8,174.67

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$680.74

Record

13%

10-70 (80)

Sisyphus-

CyberHero

Invested

$1,719.7

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

8-236 (244)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

CyberHero

Invested

$1,609.52

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$132.46

Record

37%

37-62 (99)

BillBenter2026CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,156.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$535.51

Record

13%

27-174 (201)

qwerqr1251251ARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$850

Value

$809.59

PnL

-$84.74

Record

10%

10-94 (104)

Both legs:

CyberHero$65091.6¢+$24.35

HULIGANI$20011¢-$109.09

RandomVibecoderCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,538.64

Value

$469.62

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

6-200 (206)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,889.84

Value

$400.25

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

6-133 (139)

BackTestEoCaraio

CyberHero

Invested

$1,096.03

Value

$373.96

PnL

+$78.72

Record

11%

5-39 (44)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$603.99

Value

$273.08

PnL

-$330.91

Record

50%

14-14 (28)

calculate10CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$311.47

Value

$176.13

PnL

-$42.4

Record

18%

9-42 (51)

maytopmay

CyberHero

Invested

$92.55

Value

$168.44

PnL

+$82.37

Record

8-139 (147)

38791873984189<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$97.78

Value

$66.18

PnL

-$31.6

Record

49%

374-391 (765)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$5,830.07

Value

$43.9

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

28%

13-34 (47)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$25

Value

$13.97

PnL

-$11.03

Record

66%

43-22 (65)

lryyyCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$29.88

Value

$8.82

PnL

-$24.49

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$5.75

Value

$3.49

PnL

-$2.25

Record

30%

104-242 (346)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$5.75

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$4.85

Record

17%

38-183 (221)

omnibus-076daaCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$207.65

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$207.06

Record

31%

60-136 (196)

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

8 of 19 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

45% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on CyberHero) and the top 1000 (20 on HULIGANI) disagree here.

sharpHULIGANI 75% · 4

Diverging

sniperCyberHero 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedCyberHero 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 55% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.