Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (56%) · HULIGANI at 92¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 10

HULIGANI92¢Amaru Gaming8¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 56%

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

80.4¢ → 91.5¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI92%

Amaru Gaming9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI5 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares14,050

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Amaru Gaming4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares7,757

Combined PnL-$173.44

HULIGANI — 56%Amaru Gaming — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAmaru Gaming 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Amaru Gaming 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	HULIGANIavg 80.7¢	$8.1K	$9.2K	+$1.1K	45% 408-489 (897)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	HULIGANIavg 79.4¢	$3.0K	$3.4K	+$452.82	19% 17-71 (88)
Medo3DCTR	Amaru Gamingavg 20¢	$999.99	$1.0K	+$46.85	5% 10-205 (215)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Amaru Gamingavg 16.6¢	$451.47	$230.55	-$220.91	48% 477-520 (997)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	HULIGANIavg 86.5¢	$278.6	$166.64	-$15.77	19% 13-56 (69)
TE testBruno2	HULIGANIavg 84.9¢	$128.5	$62	+$1.74	27% 11-30 (41)
38 38791873984189<$100	HULIGANIavg 80¢	$37.21	$40.07	+$2.86	47% 781-864 (1645)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Amaru Gamingavg 22¢	$5	$4.76	-$0.24	41% 3010-4414 (7424)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Amaru Gamingavg 17¢	$3.74	$4.61	+$0.87	50% 138-137 (275)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

HULIGANI

Invested

$8,100

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

45%

408-489 (897)

UNIVERSEMVP

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,972.81

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$452.82

Record

19%

17-71 (88)

Medo3DCTR

Amaru Gaming

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$46.85

Record

10-205 (215)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Amaru Gaming

Invested

$451.47

Value

$230.55

PnL

-$220.91

Record

48%

477-520 (997)

BackTestEoCaraio

HULIGANI

Invested

$278.6

Value

$166.64

PnL

-$15.77

Record

19%

13-56 (69)

testBruno2

HULIGANI

Invested

$128.5

Value

$62

PnL

+$1.74

Record

27%

11-30 (41)

38791873984189<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$37.21

Value

$40.07

PnL

+$2.86

Record

47%

781-864 (1645)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Amaru Gaming

Invested

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0.24

Record

41%

3010-4414 (7424)

lryyyCTR<$100

Amaru Gaming

Invested

$3.74

Value

$4.61

PnL

+$0.87

Record

50%

138-137 (275)

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAmaru Gaming 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Amaru Gaming 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.