Dota 2: GamerLegion vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner

28 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (78%) · GamerLegion at 100¢ · $165K held · ends Oct 29

GamerLegion>99¢LEGION<1¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

GamerLegion

Consensus Traders

GamerLegion 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$165.4K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 28 traders

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

28 of 36 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

GamerLegion100%

LEGION0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GamerLegion28 traders

Total Value$130.4K

Total Shares159,011

Combined PnL+$8.3K

LEGION8 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares80,149

Combined PnL$-6.4K

GamerLegion — 78%LEGION — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	GamerLegionavg 71.3¢	$28.9K	$29.3K	+$485.27	57% 715-547 (1262)
PN pnhct	GamerLegionavg 76.7¢	$24.7K	$24.9K	+$221.6	54% 464-399 (863)
Medo3DARB<$100	GamerLegionavg 60.8¢	$14.3K	$15.2K	+$923.67	39% 158-247 (405)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 60.8¢	$7.9K	$10.9K	+$3.0K
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 24.3¢	$6.3K	$4.3K	$-2.0K
YA yadens	GamerLegionavg 71.8¢	$14.0K	$13.8K	+$1.1K	70% 148-62 (210)
GX gxxyy	GamerLegionavg 86.7¢	$8.3K	$8.6K	+$269.54	69% 482-216 (698)
ST StakesForFun	GamerLegionavg 83.5¢	$19.5K	$7.9K	+$1.3K	63% 374-215 (589)
GE GeorgeRe	GamerLegionavg 67.8¢	$5.3K	$6.1K	+$2.0K	54% 1069-927 (1996)
TokennCTR	LEGIONavg 33.5¢	$5.7K	$5.7K	-$5	48% 648-701 (1349)
PI pipipi150	GamerLegionavg 86.1¢	$5.2K	$5.4K	+$270.01	65% 1718-915 (2633)
II iii252	GamerLegionavg 80.1¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$239.09	56% 1104-851 (1955)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620	GamerLegionavg 58.3¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$87.11	57% 43-33 (76)
maytopmay	GamerLegionavg 76.2¢	$4.5K	$4.3K	-$214.46	61% 275-176 (451)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	LEGIONavg 27.9¢	$4.5K	$4.2K	-$316.4	48% 789-841 (1630)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 60¢	$2.2K	$3.2K	+$1.0K
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 27.9¢	$2.3K	$953.86	$-1.4K
0xheavy888	GamerLegionavg 74.5¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$520	56% 6920-5536 (12456)
minji	GamerLegionavg 69.4¢	$2.7K	$3.4K	+$704.3	52% 1783-1634 (3417)
dodsterbot	GamerLegionavg 57¢	$3.4K	$2.9K	+$108.24	46% 624-719 (1343)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	LEGIONavg 31.1¢	$7.9K	$2.9K	$-5.0K	58% 887-645 (1532)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872CTR	LEGIONavg 32.2¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$105.1	43% 332-441 (773)
SkritopoolniyCTR	LEGIONavg 28.6¢	$3.5K	$2.2K	$-1.3K	48% 598-638 (1236)
DamwonChampions2026	GamerLegionavg 67.4¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$451.23	53% 2047-1810 (3857)
A8 a8999	GamerLegionavg 55.4¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$129.12	44% 1074-1370 (2444)
1R 1rerrr	GamerLegionavg 55¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	+$318.01	51% 1291-1265 (2556)
MA madar78	GamerLegionavg 74.4¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	+$106.26	69% 53-24 (77)
errormargin3CTR	LEGIONavg 9.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$21.17	54% 237-201 (438)
KA KaguyaNg	GamerLegionavg 61¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$8.33	49% 338-351 (689)

Sisyphus-

GamerLegion

Invested

$28,851.87

Value

$29.3K

PnL

+$485.27

Record

57%

715-547 (1262)

pnhct

GamerLegion

Invested

$24,724.33

Value

$24.9K

PnL

+$221.6

Record

54%

464-399 (863)

Medo3DARB<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$14,272.93

Value

$15.2K

PnL

+$923.67

Record

39%

158-247 (405)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$7,925.8160.8¢+$3.0K

LEGION$6,347.1224.3¢$-2.0K

yadens

GamerLegion

Invested

$14,000

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

70%

148-62 (210)

gxxyy

GamerLegion

Invested

$8,319.41

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$269.54

Record

69%

482-216 (698)

StakesForFun

GamerLegion

Invested

$19,467.37

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

63%

374-215 (589)

GeorgeRe

GamerLegion

Invested

$5,329.39

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

54%

1069-927 (1996)

TokennCTR

LEGION

Invested

$5,699.97

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$5

Record

48%

648-701 (1349)

pipipi150

GamerLegion

Invested

$5,166.34

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$270.01

Record

65%

1718-915 (2633)

iii252

GamerLegion

Invested

$4,506.46

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$239.09

Record

56%

1104-851 (1955)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620

GamerLegion

Invested

$4,281.83

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$87.11

Record

57%

43-33 (76)

maytopmay

GamerLegion

Invested

$4,464.97

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$214.46

Record

61%

275-176 (451)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

LEGION

Invested

$4,500.27

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$316.4

Record

48%

789-841 (1630)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$2,189.8460¢+$1.0K

LEGION$2,310.4327.9¢$-1.4K

0xheavy888

GamerLegion

Invested

$2,980

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$520

Record

56%

6920-5536 (12456)

minji

GamerLegion

Invested

$2,693.29

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$704.3

Record

52%

1783-1634 (3417)

dodsterbot

GamerLegion

Invested

$3,398.46

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$108.24

Record

46%

624-719 (1343)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

LEGION

Invested

$7,891.42

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

58%

887-645 (1532)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872CTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,700

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$105.1

Record

43%

332-441 (773)

SkritopoolniyCTR

LEGION

Invested

$3,515.84

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

48%

598-638 (1236)

DamwonChampions2026

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,513.59

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$451.23

Record

53%

2047-1810 (3857)

a8999

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,727.4

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$129.12

Record

44%

1074-1370 (2444)

1rerrr

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,716.29

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$318.01

Record

51%

1291-1265 (2556)

madar78

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,722.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$106.26

Record

69%

53-24 (77)

errormargin3CTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,100

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$21.17

Record

54%

237-201 (438)

KaguyaNg

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,016.67

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$8.33

Record

49%

338-351 (689)

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

28 of 36 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GamerLegion wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.