Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was GamerLegion — but LEGION won instead.
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner
Resolved LEGION. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held GamerLegion. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
49
GamerLegion 63%
9 arb excluded
$260.9K
$-51.6K
Smart Money Signal
31 of 49 top traders (63%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed31 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PN pnhctARB<$100 | GamerLegionavg 62.8¢ | $39.7K | $39.9K | +$192.82 | 54% 464-399 (863) |
| └ GamerLegion leg | GamerLegionavg 62.8¢ | $25.0K | — | $-25.0K | |
| └ LEGION leg | LEGIONavg 36.9¢ | $14.7K | $39.9K | +$25.2K | |
 CyberScore.liveCTR | GamerLegionavg 67¢ | $20.0K | — | $-20.0K | 46% 399-468 (867) |
SI Sisyphus-CTR | GamerLegionavg 74.2¢ | $21.7K | — | $-21.7K | 57% 715-547 (1262) |
YA yadensCTR | GamerLegionavg 59.6¢ | $15.8K | — | $-15.8K | 70% 148-62 (210) |
 Sunshine.SmileCTR | GamerLegionavg 65.7¢ | $15.2K | — | $-15.2K | 58% 1853-1331 (3184) |
GX gxxyyARB<$100 | LEGIONavg 57.9¢ | $19.6K | $27.7K | +$8.1K | 69% 482-216 (698) |
| └ LEGION leg | LEGIONavg 57.9¢ | $16.0K | $27.7K | +$11.6K | |
| └ GamerLegion leg | GamerLegionavg 43.4¢ | $3.6K | — | $-3.6K | |
 SkritopoolniyCTR | GamerLegionavg 41.5¢ | $8.3K | — | $-8.3K | 48% 598-638 (1236) |
MA madar78CTR | GamerLegionavg 50.2¢ | $24.3K | — | $-11.0K | 69% 53-24 (77) |
 cat3xcat3xCTR | GamerLegionavg 58.6¢ | $10.1K | — | $-10.1K | 56% 323-253 (576) |
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | LEGIONavg 31.5¢ | $10.5K | $33.3K | +$22.8K | 58% 887-645 (1532) |
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR | GamerLegionavg 45.8¢ | $7.4K | — | $-7.4K | 49% 1149-1192 (2341) |
 Medo3DARB<$100 | GamerLegionavg 41.8¢ | $5.8K | $9.0K | +$3.3K | 39% 158-247 (405) |
| └ GamerLegion leg | GamerLegionavg 41.8¢ | $4.7K | — | $-4.7K | |
| └ LEGION leg | LEGIONavg 12.1¢ | $1.1K | $9.0K | +$7.9K | |
0X 0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239 | LEGIONavg 21¢ | $6.4K | $30.3K | +$24.0K | 40% 280-413 (693) |
 errormargin3CTR | GamerLegionavg 34.2¢ | $4.9K | — | $-4.9K | 54% 237-201 (438) |
 Tokenn | LEGIONavg 27.7¢ | $7.9K | $22.5K | +$14.6K | 48% 648-701 (1349) |
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115 | LEGIONavg 12.1¢ | $2.7K | $22.0K | +$19.3K | 44% 63-81 (144) |
GE GeorgeReCTR | GamerLegionavg 58.9¢ | $5.9K | — | $-5.9K | 54% 1069-927 (1996) |
 DamwonChampions2026CTR | GamerLegionavg 83.3¢ | $7.3K | — | $-7.3K | 53% 2047-1810 (3857) |
 minjiCTR | GamerLegionavg 81.8¢ | $7.0K | — | $-7.0K | 52% 1783-1634 (3417) |
ST StakesForFun | LEGIONavg 97¢ | $35.4K | $17.1K | -$729.79 | 63% 374-215 (589) |
UN UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100 | GamerLegionavg 73.5¢ | $25.8K | $4.6K | +$641.06 | 68% 65-30 (95) |
| └ GamerLegion leg | GamerLegionavg 73.5¢ | $3.4K | — | $-2.1K | |
| └ LEGION leg | LEGIONavg 46.3¢ | $2.1K | $4.6K | +$2.8K | |
 0xheavy888CTR | GamerLegionavg 81.5¢ | $5.5K | — | $-5.5K | 56% 6920-5536 (12456) |
PI pipipi150ARB<$100 | GamerLegionavg 88.8¢ | $5.1K | $3.3K | $-1.8K | 65% 1718-915 (2633) |
| └ GamerLegion leg | GamerLegionavg 88.8¢ | $4.5K | — | $-4.5K | |
| └ LEGION leg | LEGIONavg 16.8¢ | $548.65 | $3.3K | +$2.7K | |
BA Barbozaaa321CTR | GamerLegionavg 5¢ | $300 | — | -$300 | 51% 338-325 (663) |
LU luckycat888888 | LEGIONavg 35¢ | $4.2K | $12.1K | +$7.8K | 46% 26-31 (57) |
Invested
$39,720.77
Value
$39.9K
PnL
+$192.82
Record
54%
464-399 (863)
Both legs:
CyberScore.liveCTRInvested
$19,999.99
Value
—
PnL
$-20.0K
Record
46%
399-468 (867)
Invested
$21,734.28
Value
—
PnL
$-21.7K
Record
57%
715-547 (1262)
Invested
$15,839.08
Value
—
PnL
$-15.8K
Record
70%
148-62 (210)
Sunshine.SmileCTRInvested
$15,187.5
Value
—
PnL
$-15.2K
Record
58%
1853-1331 (3184)
Invested
$19,608.17
Value
$27.7K
PnL
+$8.1K
Record
69%
482-216 (698)
Both legs:
SkritopoolniyCTRInvested
$8,283.35
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
48%
598-638 (1236)
Invested
$24,263.81
Value
—
PnL
$-11.0K
Record
69%
53-24 (77)
cat3xcat3xCTRInvested
$10,087.52
Value
—
PnL
$-10.1K
Record
56%
323-253 (576)
Invested
$10,500
Value
$33.3K
PnL
+$22.8K
Record
58%
887-645 (1532)
Invested
$7,365.96
Value
—
PnL
$-7.4K
Record
49%
1149-1192 (2341)
Medo3DARB<$100Invested
$5,778.52
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$3.3K
Record
39%
158-247 (405)
Both legs:
Invested
$6,372.18
Value
$30.3K
PnL
+$24.0K
Record
40%
280-413 (693)
errormargin3CTRInvested
$4,899.99
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
54%
237-201 (438)
TokennInvested
$7,901.96
Value
$22.5K
PnL
+$14.6K
Record
48%
648-701 (1349)
Invested
$2,666.1
Value
$22.0K
PnL
+$19.3K
Record
44%
63-81 (144)
Invested
$5,942.16
Value
—
PnL
$-5.9K
Record
54%
1069-927 (1996)
DamwonChampions2026CTRInvested
$7,327.27
Value
—
PnL
$-7.3K
Record
53%
2047-1810 (3857)
minjiCTRInvested
$6,969.38
Value
—
PnL
$-7.0K
Record
52%
1783-1634 (3417)
Invested
$35,423.16
Value
$17.1K
PnL
-$729.79
Record
63%
374-215 (589)
Invested
$25,758.98
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$641.06
Record
68%
65-30 (95)
Both legs:
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$5,513.16
Value
—
PnL
$-5.5K
Record
56%
6920-5536 (12456)
Invested
$5,085.95
Value
$3.3K
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
65%
1718-915 (2633)
Both legs:
Invested
$300
Value
—
PnL
-$300
Record
51%
338-325 (663)
Invested
$4,222.22
Value
$12.1K
PnL
+$7.8K
Record
46%
26-31 (57)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
pnhct
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CyberScore.live
CTRGamerLegion — $0
Sisyphus-
CTRGamerLegion — $0
yadens
CTRGamerLegion — $0
Sunshine.Smile
CTRGamerLegion — $0
gxxyy
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Skritopoolniy
CTRGamerLegion — $0
madar78
CTRGamerLegion — $0
cat3xcat3x
CTRGamerLegion — $0
0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592
LEGION — $33.3K