Dota 2: Froglings vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (45%) · Froglings at 81¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 9

Froglings81¢PlayTime19¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.4K

Combined PnL

-$46.42

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 81¢

+37% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

9 of 20 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings81%

PlayTime19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Froglings9 traders

Total Value$28.3K

Total Shares43,998

Combined PnL+$2.2K

PlayTime11 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares39,137

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Froglings — 45%PlayTime — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Froglingsavg 61.2¢	$16.0K	$18.5K	+$2.6K	59% 1036-727 (1763)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	PlayTimeavg 41.4¢	$6.7K	$4.9K	$-1.8K	61% 129-82 (211)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	Froglingsavg 53.4¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	-$157.61	45% 86-105 (191)
Medo3DCTR	PlayTimeavg 39¢	$3.2K	$3.9K	+$689.46	41% 198-289 (487)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	PlayTimeavg 40¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$271.77	48% 895-955 (1850)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 55.6¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$544.28
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 40¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$816.04
SkritopoolniyCTR	PlayTimeavg 39¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$164.06	46% 680-798 (1478)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	Froglingsavg 52.9¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$29.7	54% 2618-2246 (4864)
GX gxxyy	Froglingsavg 70.1¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$327.12	70% 534-233 (767)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	PlayTimeavg 50.2¢	$803.6	$744	-$59.6	60% 81-55 (136)
PA pauleta23	Froglingsavg 59.3¢	$420	$504.61	+$84.61	65% 25736-13843 (39579)
GO GooGooGaga1CTR	PlayTimeavg 40¢	$499.99	$462.49	-$37.5	76% 92-29 (121)
MA madar78CTR	PlayTimeavg 36.8¢	$969.78	$322.23	+$7.93	67% 87-42 (129)
alpheclabs2CTR	PlayTimeavg 34.5¢	$266.03	$273.46	+$7.43	47% 1777-1989 (3766)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Froglingsavg 59.5¢	$255.57	$272.36	+$16.79	47% 2267-2575 (4842)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 59.5¢	$162.08	$212.47	+$50.39
└ PlayTime leg	PlayTimeavg 34.3¢	$93.5	$59.9	-$33.6
R2 r2d2v2CTR	PlayTimeavg 42.2¢	$205.9	$251.22	+$45.32	55% 321-267 (588)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	PlayTimeavg 48.7¢	$2.9K	$167.72	$-1.0K	64% 131-74 (205)
QI qidao001	Froglingsavg 57¢	$141.22	$131.24	-$9.98	84% 1423-262 (1685)
Hawk.liveCTR	PlayTimeavg 21¢	$126	$114	-$12	57% 716-547 (1263)
LR lryyy<$100	Froglingsavg 58¢	$80.94	$97.25	+$16.31	48% 40309-43267 (83576)
BA BackTestEoCaraioCTR	PlayTimeavg 38.5¢	$2.5K	$76.57	+$70.41	61% 660-425 (1085)
38 38791873984189<$100	Froglingsavg 56.8¢	$50.24	$58.88	+$8.64	48% 72180-77921 (150101)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Froglingsavg 60.2¢	$51.01	$49.99	-$1.02	59% 7405-5123 (12528)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Froglings

Invested

$15,981.29

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

59%

1036-727 (1763)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$6,716.94

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

61%

129-82 (211)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

Froglings

Invested

$4,514.61

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$157.61

Record

45%

86-105 (191)

Medo3DCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$3,163.4

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$689.46

Record

41%

198-289 (487)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

PlayTime

Invested

$3,854.25

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$271.77

Record

48%

895-955 (1850)

Both legs:

Froglings$1,606.6855.6¢+$544.28

PlayTime$2,247.5740¢-$816.04

SkritopoolniyCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$3,142.98

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$164.06

Record

46%

680-798 (1478)

THEHIGHLIFE

Froglings

Invested

$2,807.67

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$29.7

Record

54%

2618-2246 (4864)

gxxyy

Froglings

Invested

$2,063.53

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$327.12

Record

70%

534-233 (767)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$803.6

Value

$744

PnL

-$59.6

Record

60%

81-55 (136)

pauleta23

Froglings

Invested

$420

Value

$504.61

PnL

+$84.61

Record

65%

25736-13843 (39579)

GooGooGaga1CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$499.99

Value

$462.49

PnL

-$37.5

Record

76%

92-29 (121)

madar78CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$969.78

Value

$322.23

PnL

+$7.93

Record

67%

87-42 (129)

alpheclabs2CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$266.03

Value

$273.46

PnL

+$7.43

Record

47%

1777-1989 (3766)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Froglings

Invested

$255.57

Value

$272.36

PnL

+$16.79

Record

47%

2267-2575 (4842)

Both legs:

Froglings$162.0859.5¢+$50.39

PlayTime$93.534.3¢-$33.6

r2d2v2CTR

PlayTime

Invested

$205.9

Value

$251.22

PnL

+$45.32

Record

55%

321-267 (588)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$2,919.71

Value

$167.72

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

64%

131-74 (205)

qidao001

Froglings

Invested

$141.22

Value

$131.24

PnL

-$9.98

Record

84%

1423-262 (1685)

Hawk.liveCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$126

Value

$114

PnL

-$12

Record

57%

716-547 (1263)

lryyy<$100

Froglings

Invested

$80.94

Value

$97.25

PnL

+$16.31

Record

48%

40309-43267 (83576)

BackTestEoCaraioCTR

PlayTime

Invested

$2,532.56

Value

$76.57

PnL

+$70.41

Record

61%

660-425 (1085)

38791873984189<$100

Froglings

Invested

$50.24

Value

$58.88

PnL

+$8.64

Record

48%

72180-77921 (150101)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Froglings

Invested

$51.01

Value

$49.99

PnL

-$1.02

Record

59%

7405-5123 (12528)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

9 of 20 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.